Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange surged more than 1% on the evening of the 7th, reaching a record high above the $14,530 per tonne mark and surpassing the previous all-time high set in January. The contract closed at $14,494 per tonne. So far this year, copper prices have climbed 17%, with a 47% gain over the past 12 months.
A senior analyst at Cesco, a Chilean copper industry think tank, attributes this rally primarily to tariff-driven metal shifts rather than robust end-user demand. Since former US President Donald Trump first formally proposed copper tariffs in February last year, COMEX copper futures have maintained a significant premium over London prices, creating a substantial arbitrage window for traders. Some analysts also suggest that strong demand combined with supply disruptions will further tighten the copper supply-demand balance, supporting elevated price levels. From a longer-term perspective, the aging of major global mine fleets and supply growth failing to keep pace with demand growth remain the core trading logic repeatedly emphasized by bulls.
In the oil market, WTI crude oil futures spiked sharply at the open. Thailand, the world's second-largest sugar exporter, may see production plummet by 17%. Rangsit Hiangrat, head of the Thai Sugar Millers Association, stated that in the 2026/2027 crushing season beginning this October, Thai sugar output could fall below 10 million tonnes, compared to 12 million tonnes in the previous season. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts there is a greater than 90% probability that the current El Niño phenomenon will develop into a "very strong" super El Niño during the 2026-2027 winter. Supply risks have already pushed New York sugar futures notably higher, with prices up over 20% last month, the largest monthly gain since 2010. Thailand, together with Brazil and India, accounts for roughly 70% of global sugar exports. India's monsoon rainfall has also been below normal levels. The International Sugar Organization projects a global supply deficit of approximately 260,000 tonnes in the upcoming season as El Niño impacts Asian sugar crops.
According to reports from Chinese state media, Houthi forces in Yemen said that on September 7, Saudi fighter jets conducted airstrikes on the Hazm area of Al-Jawf province. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree stated that while continuing its blockade of Yemen, Saudi Arabia has recently escalated tensions through airstrikes that have caused civilian casualties, with the latest attack occurring in Al-Jawf province. Saree added that Saudi reconnaissance aircraft have been conducting aerial operations and providing various types of weapons to Saudi-backed forces. He warned that continued Saudi military actions against Yemen would be met with "response and punishment," and that Saudi Arabia must bear the consequences of its actions against the Yemeni people.
In a separate development, the Houthis announced on the 7th that they had launched a ballistic missile attack on military trucks transporting supplies from Saudi Arabia to the Wadi al-Ain military base in Hadhramaut province, which is controlled by Yemeni government forces. The Houthi-run Al Masirah TV broadcast footage after the attack, claiming the missile used was of their own production. The report did not mention any casualties.
Turning to the A-share market, performance was mixed on September 7. The SSE 50 Index fell 0.41% due to weakness in the banking sector, while technology stocks drove strong gains in the ChiNext and STAR boards. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices rose 1.39% and 1.75% respectively, with total market turnover reaching 1.96 trillion yuan. Sun Feng, a financial derivatives analyst at Galaxy Futures, said the technology stock rebound was boosted by multiple factors, including last Friday's rebound in US semiconductor stocks, the launch of GPT-6 Astra, Goldman Sachs raising its target price for Zhongji Innolight, and the upcoming Optoelectronics Expo. The strong volume in the optical module sector helped restore market sentiment, but overall trading volume did not expand significantly, indicating weak willingness among off-market funds to enter. Beyond tech stocks, the seed industry remained active while banking and insurance sectors weakened, suggesting the ongoing seesaw effect of intra-market capital rotation persists.
"The core contradiction in the domestic equity market remains the tug-of-war between slowing economic growth momentum and policy reinforcement," noted Xiang Qirui, an index analyst at Guolian Futures. "Industrial profits of large-scale enterprises grew 11.2% year-on-year in July, down from the June pace." He warned that market divergence is intensifying, with the AI industrial chain maintaining high growth and electronics industry profits up 105% year-to-date, while traditional sectors like ferrous metal smelting, non-metal mineral products, and auto manufacturing saw profits decline by 51.2%, 48.2%, and 20.4% respectively. A substantive turnaround in mid-and-downstream profit expectations will still take time.
However, the August manufacturing PMI released positive signals. The PMI rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, with the production index and new orders index rebounding to 50.4% and 50.6%, both returning to expansion territory. The new export orders index also climbed back above the boom-bust line at 50.1%, indicating initial policy effects. Xiang said policy support has been expanding on multiple fronts. The Ministry of Finance has explicitly stated it will strengthen counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments and is researching new fiscal-financial coordination measures. In real estate, the central bank and financial regulator have extended the maximum term for individual housing loans from 30 to 40 years, with major cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Xi'an rolling out new property policies. But the transmission of these policies to the real economy still requires time.
"From an inventory cycle perspective, the economy currently shows passive inventory accumulation, with slowing demand leading to involuntary stockpiling. The widening scissors gap between input costs and factory-gate prices also signals short-term profit pressure," Xiang said. In this environment, the bond market offers relatively stronger certainty, with domestic inflation remaining low and limited upside risk for interest rates. Long-term funds have been increasing their absorption capacity during sharp equity index declines, helping indices stabilize, but this also indicates that active upward momentum has yet to form. "Except for the ChiNext Index, other indices have not broken away from last Friday's bearish candlestick patterns, and the consolidation range remains unchanged. With the Fed's rate decision still uncertain and US markets closed, the three major A-share indices are expected to trade in a range-bound fashion," Sun Feng said.
Xiang believes the economy exhibits weak recovery characteristics, policy expectations remain strong, and capital flows are still in a supportive mode. He expects the three major indices to continue their range-bound oscillation, with a trend reversal awaiting more fundamental improvement signals and clearer evidence of policy transmission effects.
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