China is set to open another window for refined oil price adjustments at 24:00 on April 21 (midnight Wednesday). Multiple industry research institutions predict a high likelihood of the first price reduction this year, which would lower fuel costs for consumers.
According to monitoring models from industry firm Zhuochuang Information, as of the close on April 17 (the ninth working day of the current pricing cycle), the reference crude oil change rate stood at -11.87%. Based on this figure, gasoline and diesel prices are expected to drop by 525 yuan per ton. Converted to per-liter prices, this translates to reductions of 0.41 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.44 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.45 yuan per liter for 0-grade diesel. Another industry agency, Longzhong Information, provided a similar forecast, estimating a price cut of around 500 yuan per ton on April 22.
If the adjustment is implemented as projected, consumer fuel expenses are expected to decrease. For example, filling a 50-liter tank in a typical private car with 92-octane gasoline would cost approximately 20 yuan less.
Following the outbreak of Iran-Israel tensions, international oil prices initially surged to nearly $120 per barrel. However, over the past two weeks, prices have retreated significantly from their highs after the United States signaled potential peace talks with Iran. On April 17, in particular, Brent crude and WTI futures plummeted after Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period.
On April 20, oil prices rebounded sharply amid reports that Iran denied participating in a second round of U.S.-Iran talks. As of 16:00 Beijing time on April 20, Brent crude climbed above $95 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude rose past $89 per barrel, both registering gains of over 5%.
Despite the recent rebound, analysts note that oil prices have remained relatively low throughout the current pricing cycle, and the overall trend still points toward a likely reduction in domestic fuel prices.
Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, highlighted ongoing supply-side risks. She noted that a specific date for the second round of U.S.-Iran talks has not been set, the temporary ceasefire is set to expire on April 22, and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have not substantially improved. Additionally, oil production in Gulf producers like Saudi Arabia remains low.
On the demand side, support for oil prices appears limited. Liu pointed out that refinery operations in several Asian countries have been scaled back due to regional conflicts, leading to weaker crude consumption. Moreover, with the U.S. Federal Reserve unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term, some institutions have already lowered global economic growth forecasts, further dampening oil demand expectations.
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