On April 13, gold traded in a weak and volatile pattern. The Asian session opened with a sharp decline of over 100 USD, pushing prices to a low of 4643 USD. However, the market quickly recovered its losses, returning above the 4700 level. A short position initiated near 4730 during the European session yielded modest gains. Gold prices edged higher toward the end of the US session, eventually closing at 4741 USD, forming a bearish candlestick on the daily chart.
As of Tuesday, April 14, the uncertain situation between the US and Iran—marked by both confrontation and negotiation—is intersecting with the impact of high oil prices on Federal Reserve policy. While former President Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, he also stated that Iran "wants to reach a deal." Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials are divided over the duration of energy price shocks—suggesting that gold is likely to remain highly volatile in the near term.
Iran issued a statement clarifying that the Strait of Hormuz remains under control and is open to non-military vessels under specific regulations, while any approach by military ships would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. With geopolitical developments shifting rapidly, market sentiment continues to swing. Under these conditions, gold is prone to sharp rises or falls in response to news from either side, though overall support below remains strong.
From a technical perspective, gold may face a complex trading session. While the daily chart suggests potential for a continued rebound, the hourly chart indicates sideways movement with visible resistance. This increases the likelihood of consolidation as the market digests recent moves. Key resistance is observed near 4800, while support levels are seen around 4750-4730 and 4700.
In summary, short-term trading should be approached with a range-bound mindset, with the core trading zone between 4700 and 4800. A "buy low, sell high" strategy is recommended—taking long positions near key support levels and short positions near key resistance, with strict stop-loss measures in place. Traders should monitor developments in US-Iran negotiations, as well as upcoming US PPI data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Conservative investors may prefer to wait for clearer signals or data releases before entering the market.
Today’s trading suggestion: Gold: Trade within the 4700-4800 range with quick entries and exits. Adjust positions promptly in case of unexpected news.
Key economic data and events to watch on Tuesday, April 14: - Federal Reserve Board hosts a working forum (time TBD) - 18:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March - 20:30 US PPI Annual Rate for March - 20:30 US PPI Monthly Rate for March - Next day 00:15 Fed’s Goolsbee participates in panel discussion - Next day 00:45 Fed Governor Barr delivers remarks at working forum - Next day 01:00 Fed’s Paulson and others participate in a fireside chat
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