Good morning, let's first turn our attention to the international situation. According to CCTV International News, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" yesterday, stating that he had "canceled all meetings with Iranian officials."
The New York Times, citing U.S. military officials, reported that U.S. military commanders in the Middle East hope to "allow more time to consolidate U.S. positions before launching any potential strikes, in preparation for possible retaliatory attacks by Iran." It is reported that Trump said on the 11th that the Iranian side had contacted U.S. government officials and proposed negotiations, stating that "meetings were being arranged." According to the latest news from CCTV News, on January 13th, Eastern U.S. time, the U.S. Department of State issued a nationwide security alert through the "Virtual U.S. Embassy Tehran," urging U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately. It advised traveling to Turkey or Armenia by land if safe and feasible, while also reminding citizens not to rely on direct assistance from the U.S. government for evacuation. The U.S. Department of State had issued an emergency security alert on the 12th, requiring U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately. Separately, according to Xinhua News Agency, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated on the 13th that Russia strongly condemns external interference in Iran's internal affairs, and that the U.S. threat of military strikes against Iran is "absolutely unacceptable." Gold and silver prices, as well as oil prices, surged significantly. On the evening of the 13th, spot gold and silver prices both hit new historical records, while WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures prices also rose sharply.
As of the time of writing, both gold and silver prices have retreated somewhat. The spot price of London silver is up over 3%, while the spot price of London gold has fallen by 0.27%. The main Shanghai silver futures contract is up over 4%. On the news front, on January 13th local time, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025, unchanged from the previous month's increase but higher than market expectations. After excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year before seasonal adjustment in December 2025. After the data release, traders increased their bets on an "earlier Fed interest rate cut." The latest data forecasts indicate that the probability of a Fed rate cut in April is about 42%, higher than the 38% before the CPI data release. However, Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," stated that the December 2025 CPI is unlikely to change the Fed's current wait-and-see attitude, as officials likely want to see more evidence that inflation is stabilizing and gradually declining before cutting rates. It is worth noting that the CME Group has adjusted margins for precious metal futures for the fourth time in nearly a month. Industry insiders told Futures Daily that if the volatility of U.S. precious metal prices increases further in the future, the CME Group might take stronger measures. While these stronger measures are not directly targeted at market prices, they would objectively help curb excessive speculation in precious metals by increasing futures trading costs, limiting the scale of futures speculation, and enhancing futures market transparency, thereby potentially indirectly smoothing the volatility of precious metal prices. On the crude oil front, as of the time of writing, the main WTI crude oil futures contract is up 2.61%, and the main Brent crude oil futures contract is up 2.55%. The U.S. eases restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chip exports to China. According to CCTV News, the U.S. Federal Register showed on January 13th local time that the U.S. has relaxed regulatory rules for exporting Nvidia's H200 chips to China. Previously, Trump stated via social media that the U.S. government would allow Nvidia to sell H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. It is reported that the aforementioned sales to China will be subject to approval and security review by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and the U.S. side will also collect fees from the relevant transactions. LME copper warrant inventories plummet by 22%. According to data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Tuesday, LME on-warrant copper inventories fell to 89,725 tonnes, a sharp decrease of 22% from 115,150 tonnes the previous day, marking the lowest level since July 10th of last year. The market expects that the U.S. may impose tariffs on refined copper later this year, prompting traders to continuously move copper inventories from LME warehouses to the United States. Copper inventories in U.S. COMEX warehouses have surged by 444% over the past 12 months, reaching 520,441 short tons. The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a pattern of rising initially then falling back. On Tuesday, the non-ferrous metals sector as a whole showed a pattern of rising initially then falling back. As of the midday close, the main Shanghai copper futures contract was quoted at 102,290 yuan per tonne, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract was quoted at 24,375 yuan per tonne, and the main Shanghai nickel futures contract fell below the key 140,000 yuan per tonne level. Looking at the copper market, Gu Fengda, chief analyst at Guosen Futures, stated that on one hand, as macro positive factors are gradually digested by the market, and after copper prices continuously hit new highs, spot market procurement demand has been significantly suppressed. Domestic copper social inventories have also accumulated to relatively high levels, temporarily weakening the upward momentum of prices due to profit-taking at high levels and weak real demand. On the other hand, the underlying upward logic composed of factors such as tight copper concentrate resources, expectations of substantial demand growth, and extremely uneven inventory distribution has not been broken. Overall, copper prices may experience short-term volatile adjustments, but the medium-term bullish structure will not change. Looking at the aluminum market, Gu Fengda believes that after aluminum prices hit historical highs, profit-taking by some long positions has brought downward pressure to the futures market. As aluminum prices rise, procurement demand from downstream industries gradually weakens. Coupled with the impact of the traditional off-season for consumption, current aluminum ingot social inventories have risen to a high level compared to the same period in the past three years, which will suppress the room for price increases. "The current upward momentum for spot aluminum prices is actually not strong," said Li Ye, a non-ferrous metals researcher at Shenwan Futures. On one hand, the rebound in aluminum prices, combined with environmental production restrictions in central China, has led to low willingness among downstream users to accept goods. The overall consumption atmosphere is average, and the operating rate continues to decline. On the other hand, as aluminum prices repeatedly hit new highs, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remains high, domestic social inventories overall show signs of accumulation. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the inventory accumulation trend may continue. Li Ye also mentioned that although the short-term fundamentals are weak, positive macro sentiment and a continuously weakening U.S. dollar, along with multiple metal prices hitting historical highs and the copper-aluminum ratio remaining at a historically high level, provide relatively solid bottom support for aluminum prices. "With the current escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, market concerns about supply chain security and stability are intensifying, driving continuous focus of long funds on the non-ferrous sector, which possesses strategic resource attributes," Gu Fengda believes. "Coupled with aluminum's own characteristics, such as a supply 'ceiling,' and the fact that the copper-aluminum ratio is still at a historically high level, aluminum prices still have room for further increases." He expects limited room for short-term declines in aluminum prices, and that short-term adjustments will not change the overall upward price trend. He advises traders to manage long position allocations and control overall exposure, paying attention to buying opportunities on dips. Furthermore, Futures Daily reporters noted that cast aluminum alloy futures prices followed aluminum prices lower. Regarding the spot market, Gu Fengda stated that rising ADC12 prices provide support for futures prices. Simultaneously, as spot prices rise, the industry's average profit level has recently turned positive from negative. However, considering issues such as high scrap aluminum prices and insufficient supply, the operating rate in the recycled aluminum industry remains constrained. On the demand side, although short-term automotive market demand may weaken, some automakers are boosting consumer purchasing enthusiasm through promotional activities. Meanwhile, new energy vehicle demand in 2026 will still receive policy support, which bodes well for aluminum alloy demand expectations. From a medium-term perspective, cast aluminum alloy futures prices are likely to trade with a stronger bias. Looking at the nickel market, the SMM nickel analysis team stated that there is a prominent contradiction between the current nickel price and its fundamentals: on one hand, inventories continue to grow, while on the other hand, nickel prices remain firm. The market is still in a fierce battle between the "strong expectations from Indonesian policies" and the "reality of high inventories and weak demand." It is worth noting that downstream acceptance of high-priced materials is currently extremely low. Market sentiment has shifted from extreme optimism to cautious watching, and nickel price volatility may intensify in the future.
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