On October 21, Geely Auto (00175)'s premium EV brand Zeekr announced the one-year anniversary results of the 9X: cumulative deliveries exceeded 85,000 units, with an average transaction price per vehicle above 530,000 yuan.
Selling at a high price while also selling in large volumes was the original motivation for Chinese automakers to race into building "big 9" flagship models. The Li L9 in 2022 and the AITO M9 at the end of 2023 successively proved this was possible, and by the spring of 2025, flagship models from peers began launching in dense succession.
Today, automakers can already build products with similar specifications, but consumers have far more choices — a fully equipped large six-seat SUV can be had for just over 200,000 yuan. Every brand wants to move upmarket, yet the buyers they are competing for are becoming increasingly similar.
Crossing the 10,000-unit mark in monthly sales is no longer enough to put an automaker at ease. Leapmotor's D19 surged past 10,000 units in July, then fell back to around 3,000 units in September.
The honeymoon period for "big 9" models is getting shorter and shorter. A single spike can prove that a product once won recognition, but it is not enough to support all of an automaker's expectations for a flagship: raising the price, contributing scale, and generating profit for future research and development.
The early success of "big 9" models is still drawing in latecomers. But by the time each company's flagship rolls into showrooms, the market they originally targeted is already crowded with a batch of rivals who also spent years preparing. Cars can be built along similar lines, but the competitive environment that early movers enjoyed at the starting line is hard to recreate.
A crowded field of "big 9" models
In the 412th batch of new product filings recently published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, five "9-series" flagship SUV lines appeared simultaneously: the Lynk & Co 900L, the Shangjie Z9, the Yijing X9, the Fangchengbao Tai 9, and the Wey V9X. Beyond new models, automakers are also adding pure electric, hybrid, and different seating configurations.
These products are surging into a market that is growing rapidly but also quickly becoming crowded.
According to statistics from Autohome Research Institute based on insurance registration data, in the first half of this year, the broader large SUV market sold about 350,000 units, up 97% year-on-year; the number of models on sale increased from 24 in 2023 to 50 this year.
That growth has not been evenly distributed across every model. Based on monthly retail data, Geely Auto (00175)'s Zeekr 9X broke past 10,000 units in March, fell to 2,887 units in August, and rebounded to 5,175 units in September; the AITO M9 held at around 10,000 units from June through September.
Some are still at high levels, while others have already gone through one decline and are starting to climb again.
It is becoming harder for automakers to create surprises through specifications alone. NIO Chairman Li Bin previously told Wallstreetcn that making a car bigger and adding comfort features is something other manufacturers can quickly replicate, and that "users have become desensitized to parameter wars." With several similar products in front of them, consumers can pick a brand or experience within their original budget, or spend a little less to get a flagship with comparable specifications.
The Leapmotor D19 starts at 219,800 yuan. Leapmotor Senior Vice President Cao Li said that based on the trim levels users chose at launch, the average transaction price was above 250,000 yuan, with existing owners accounting for a relatively high share of trade-ins and upgrades. Some customers are willing to buy a more expensive Leapmotor, showing a response to the brand's upward push; but in the broader flagship market, this car has lowered the threshold for large six-seat SUVs.
For latecomers, competing for premium users does not necessarily mean asking them to increase their budget. When the Yijing X9 opened pre-sales, Yijing Auto marketing vice general manager Cheng Jinwen pointed to families who previously bought joint-venture brand cars around 300,000 yuan as the core target group.
Consumers can trade into a large six-seat SUV for a similar amount of money; the company hopes to use this group of customers to enter a higher price band.
The D19 also needs to contribute to Leapmotor's annual sales target. COO Xu Jun explained the annual target to Wallstreetcn in April this year, saying that to meet it, every product needs to become a hit. The D19 did surge past 10,000 units in July, but two months later it fell back to around 3,000 units, and has yet to establish stable high sales.
For automakers, concentrating initial demand and production capacity releases can push up a model's delivery volume. Whether there are enough new customers to sustain it in the following months is a longer test. The magnitude of a sales decline is visible, but the separate effects of order flow and delivery pace cannot be distinguished from monthly rankings alone.
In the higher price band, the NIO ES9 began deliveries on May 28 and had accumulated 30,000 deliveries by September 23. NIO disclosed that it has ranked first in monthly sales among pure electric models priced above 500,000 yuan for three consecutive months. These high-budget buyers remain the customers every company hopes to win.
However, a flagship starting to sell well is still a long way from improving the entire company's profit. Li Auto (LI) CFO Li Tie said in the second-quarter earnings report that the new L9 would help improve gross margin quarter-on-quarter. In that quarter, Li Auto's vehicle gross margin recovered to 9.4%, still below 19.4% in the same period a year earlier.
New flagships are already improving the product mix, but the profit levels of the past have not yet returned.
The lure of the flagship
Four years ago, the L9 showed Chinese automakers a business that had previously been very difficult to pull off.
When the Li L9 launched in June 2022, it came in only one version priced at 459,800 yuan. A 5.2-meter body accommodated six seats, with all three rows featuring power adjustment and heating; it could run on electricity for daily use and refuel for long trips. Families wanted space, comfort, and also electric drive experience with convenient recharging — the L9 packed all these requirements into a single car.
The L9 delivered over 10,000 units in its first full production month. The AITO M9, launched at the end of 2023, then achieved more than 150,000 deliveries in 2024. The combination of high prices and large volume, previously difficult for Chinese brands to achieve simultaneously, became reality with these two models.
High prices and large volumes are especially attractive to automakers that still need to invest heavily in R&D and distribution. Li Xiang expressed this business goal in the third-quarter 2022 earnings report: achieving healthy gross margins and self-sustaining cash flow, then continuing to invest in R&D and operational capabilities.
If a flagship can provide such revenue, the brand's upward push will have the funds to keep investing.
The premium market still retained better profit margins at the time. An automotive industry analyst at a foreign investment bank told Wallstreetcn that over the past two years, ordinary joint-venture brands have found it very difficult to make money, while luxury cars can still be profitable. This is also an important attraction for domestic automakers to continue moving upmarket.
But a car takes time from project approval to launch. The Lynk & Co 900 launched in April 2025, but the project began development three years earlier. The Lynk & Co 900 incorporated feedback from 09 users on space, comfort, and intelligent features, and also referenced competitors' market performance after meeting those needs.
By the spring of 2025, these R&D plans began to materialize in concentrated fashion. The Denza N9 and Lynk & Co 900 launched in succession, with more products still in preparation. Early movers kept proving the market existed, while other automakers were completing their own flagships. The opportunity seen during development had, by launch time, already drawn more participants into the competition.
The supply chain has also made this catch-up faster. Features such as air suspension no longer require every automaker to develop from scratch. In 2025, Baolong Technology partnered with Bilstein to offer automakers a one-stop solution for shock absorbers and air springs, aiming to optimize costs, simplify supply chain interfaces, and shorten launch cycles. Baolong was already providing solutions to dozens of customers in the air suspension field.
As the same type of premium components enters more products, consumers can find similar specifications across different price bands. Early movers attracted buyers with a complete family experience, while latecomers can continue adding features along similar product concepts, or push prices lower. Every company's product is improving, but supporting a high price through specifications alone is becoming increasingly difficult.
This change is directly reflected in the pricing of the Yijing X9. During pre-sales in August, brand general manager Zeng Qinglin explained that the project chose high-spec hardware and software from the start, and that building the flagship first was a pragmatic choice, "otherwise the costs could not be covered."
Faced with the relationship between high-cost features and profit margins, he added: "I would rather sacrifice profit than cut specifications." The core customers Yijing hopes to win are families who previously bought joint-venture brand cars around 300,000 yuan. It wants to attract these people with more complete specifications, but cannot set prices based solely on hardware investment.
A flagship needs a relatively high price to accommodate technology investment, yet when competing for customers, it must give up part of its profit. Both requirements fall simultaneously on a new car.
Consumers may switch to a Chinese brand precisely because a similar budget can buy more; the profit that once stayed in the premium market is therefore difficult to transfer over unchanged along with the customers.
The cost of long-term sales
This year, automakers are desperately rolling out large 9-series models, making an already limited track even more crowded.
The aforementioned foreign investment bank automotive analyst said that some models in the industry peak in sales three to six months after launch and have clearly weakened by twelve months.
He then discussed development costs: spending hundreds of millions of yuan to build a car, if it can only sell effectively for one year or even just a few months, makes it very hard to recover the investment. Automakers spend years developing a product, but the time left for it to make money may be far shorter than expected.
Flagships that have been on sale for a while are now courting the next batch of buyers. Lynk & Co released official images of the 900L this week, and earlier filing information showed it added a seven-seat layout; the Zeekr 9X has already added a five-seat version and entered overseas markets. On October 19, IM Motors launched an early "Double 11" promotion, which also included designated in-stock units of the LS9 super extended-range model.
Adding versions can cover new demand, and promotions can lower the purchase threshold, but these moves each come at a cost. New versions require development, validation, and inventory, while price cuts directly change the revenue each car can retain. After a flagship launches, the company still has to decide which investments are worth continuing.
Li Bin cautioned that the costs that can be diluted by sales volume are not as much as outsiders imagine. When NIO calculates the volume-price relationship, it prioritizes total gross profit; a small price cut may not bring enough incremental volume, while a large price cut runs into the limits of the cost structure. In his calculation, the fixed costs that can truly be spread through higher sales — factories, equipment, molds — are limited.
For every additional car sold, batteries, chips, and seats still have to be purchased anew. After a price cut, how many additional units are needed to recover the lost gross profit depends on the specific cost structure. For Yijing, which insists on "sacrificing profit rather than cutting specifications," hardware cannot be reduced just because the price is lowered.
Automakers that can share R&D, manufacturing, and distribution across multiple products can reduce the investment borne by a single flagship. New brands must also build service and reputation while delivering cars. Even if two cars have similar specifications, the cost of continuing to operate them can differ greatly.
The faster sales rise and fall, the more urgent these trade-offs become. In an industry exchange in May this year, Gong Min talked about automakers "desperately rolling out large 9-series cars" and warned that some models in the industry peak in sales three to six months after launch and clearly weaken by twelve months. A product developed for hundreds of millions of yuan, if it can only sell effectively for one year or even a few months, makes the investment very hard to recover.
Extending a car's sales cycle requires more people willing to continue choosing the brand. McKinsey's 2026 consumer survey shows that in electric vehicle purchase considerations, the importance of brand has risen to second place after range and charging time, and the number of brands consumers initially consider is still shrinking. The easier specifications are to match, the more a company's past products and services will affect whether its flagship can enter the next batch of customers' consideration set.
A few flagships seeing sales decline is not enough to cool this melee immediately. The aforementioned foreign investment bank automotive analyst pointed out that many companies are participating in homogeneous competition and find it hard to exit effectively, with new brands and more large SUVs still appearing. Projects have already been developed, channels have already been laid down, and companies will continue to fight for orders.
Chinese automakers have already proven that flagship models priced at 400,000 to 500,000 yuan can be sold to enough consumers. After the melee, retaining the premium profit originally targeted will require still making money after every facelift, price concession, and channel investment. Monthly sales of 10,000 units can be achieved with a single new car, but the money to support the next generation of flagships must be earned bit by bit over the long sales period after launch.
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