Founder Securities has issued a research report initiating coverage on BUSYMING (01768) with a "Recommended" rating. The brokerage forecasts the company's revenue for 2025-2027 to reach RMB 64.333 billion, RMB 85.568 billion, and RMB 97.729 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 63.52%, 33.01%, and 14.21%, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 2.194 billion, RMB 3.091 billion, and RMB 3.738 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 163.21%, 40.88%, and 20.91%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are estimated at 35.7x, 25.4x, and 21.0x.
BUSYMING is a leading domestic food and beverage retailer utilizing a bulk-snack model to meet consumer demand for high-quality, affordable snacks. According to its prospectus, the company operated 19,517 stores across 28 provinces and all county-level cities by the third quarter of 2025. Gross merchandise volume for the first three quarters of 2025 reached RMB 66.1 billion, a 74.5% increase year-on-year. With over 1.6 billion orders in 2024, BUSYMING is the largest and fastest-growing snack and beverage retail chain in China by GMV.
Significant expansion potential remains in lower-tier markets, where the competitive landscape favors established leaders. The retail market for snack foods and beverages in these regions grew from RMB 17 trillion in 2019 to RMB 23 trillion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.5%. This market is expected to expand to RMB 32 trillion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 6.8% from 2024, outpacing the 4.1% growth in higher-tier markets. The long-term potential for bulk-snack stores is estimated at 86,369 locations. With approximately 50,000 stores nationwide by the end of 2025, there is considerable room for growth.
Following industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions by the end of 2023, BUSYMING and Wanchen Group have emerged as leaders. In 2024, BUSYMING added 7,809 new stores, while Wanchen Group opened 9,470. During the first three quarters of 2025, BUSYMING expanded by 5,123 stores, with the majority of new store openings contributed by these top players, solidifying a clear duopoly.
The development of prominent retailers such as Sam's Club and Pang Dong Lai has increased consumer awareness and acceptance of private-label products. As more retailers invest in their own brands, bulk-snack companies like BUSYMING are well-positioned to benefit from this trend.
The company has established a growth cycle through scale effects, reinforcing its industry leadership and enhancing profitability. By rapidly expanding its store network early in the industry's development, BUSYMING created a virtuous cycle: a large store count enables economies of scale, leading to competitive pricing, which in turn encourages franchisees to open more stores. During the rapid growth phases of 2023 and 2024, significant investments were made in logistics, warehousing, and personnel. As revenue scales, profitability has improved, with an adjusted net profit margin of 4.2% in the third quarter of 2025. Wanchen Group reported a net profit margin of 5.33% for its bulk-snack business during the same period, excluding share-based payments. Given BUSYMING's larger store count and revenue base, there is substantial potential for further margin expansion.
Additionally, the company is actively developing its private-label offerings. As the proportion of自有品牌 sales increases, net profit margins are expected to rise further.
Potential risks include slower-than-expected store expansion, intensifying industry competition, and food safety incidents.
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