Natural Rubber On Tuesday, domestic full latex was priced at 15,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thailand 20# mixed rubber was at 15,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. On the raw material side: Yesterday, Thai rubber latex closed at 57.5泰铢/kg, up 0.5泰铢/kg from the previous day, while Thai cup lump price closed at 52.5泰铢/kg, up 0.3泰铢/kg from the previous day; Yunnan has ceased tapping; Hainan has ceased tapping. As of January 11, 2026, the combined inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 568,200 tons, an increase of 19,800 tons from the previous period, up 3.62%. Bonded zone inventory was 93,500 tons, up 6.14%; general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, up 3.13%. The inbound rate for sampled bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 1.64 percentage points, while the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the inbound rate for general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, while the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points. Viewpoint: With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is entering a low production season, which also signifies that the pricing framework for outright prices will shift from dynamic pricing based on supply-demand balance to static pricing based on existing inventory. Against the backdrop of broadly strengthening expectations in the commodity market recently, it is expected that RU, NR, and Sicom will continue to trade at high levels with volatility in the short term. Looking ahead, although global demand for rubber products such as tires is expected to see moderate growth in 2026, demand growth takes time, and global trade barriers have not been fully eliminated, so the magnitude of demand growth may still be limited. Therefore, it is expected that the peak of this rebound before the 2026 Lunar New Year will likely not exceed the level seen at the end of July 2025. PX: Supply and demand are both stable. The operating rate of China's PX industry increased by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month to 90.9%, while the Asian industry operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month to 81.2%. High margins continue to incentivize plants to purchase MX for PX production, and it is expected that overall PX supply will remain at relatively high levels in January. On the demand side, downstream PTA units such as Dushan Energy and Zhongtai Petrochemical have restarted successively, which will drive PX demand. The accumulation of PX inventory in January is expected to narrow. US CPI for December 2025 rose 2.7% year-on-year, and core CPI rose 2.6%, both unchanged from the previous reading; this data did not alter market expectations for the timing of Fed rate cuts, and the US dollar index strengthened. The EIA raised its 2026 crude oil price forecast in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report. Furthermore, former US President Trump announced on social media that he had "canceled all meetings with Iranian officials," further escalating geopolitical tensions, which continues to push oil prices higher. Brent crude prices broke through previous key resistance areas, and the time spread also continued its rebound. Although API crude inventory data showed a larger-than-expected build, ongoing tensions in the Middle East are expected to continue supporting oil prices, making them prone to increases rather than decreases in the short term. Overall, the polyester industry still has support, but terminal demand is showing a seasonal weakening trend. The industrial chain is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter. In the short term, cost-side support is relatively strong. The PX March futures price is expected to mainly follow cost trends, trading with a stronger bias and volatility; buying on dips is the main strategy, with medium-term support at 7000-7150. Monitor aromatics prices. PTA: Supply and demand are both stable. The PTA industry operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month to 78.2%, which is at a relatively low level for the same period in previous years. On the demand side, the atmosphere for new orders is generally weak, and the operating rates of terminal plants in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region continue to decline. The polyester industry operating rate remained flat month-on-month at 90.8%. Based on announced maintenance plans, industry operating rates are expected to accelerate their decline starting from the latter part of this month. However, the maintenance is mostly routine holiday arrangements for small and medium-sized enterprises, with leading companies yet to announce clear maintenance plans. As restarted units come online and the impact of seasonal weakening in terminal demand gradually transmits upstream, PTA inventory is expected to reach an accumulation inflection point in January. Overall, the fundamental situation in the current TA-polyester segment still has support, and PTA spot basis is generally strong, but its sustainability will be tested by expectations of polyester production cuts. Simultaneously, weakening terminal demand will also exert downward pressure, and the industrial chain faces inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter. In the short term, the TA May futures price is expected to mainly follow cost trends, trading with a stronger bias and volatility; buying on dips is the main strategy, with medium-term support at 4950-5050. Relevant market news Production-Sales: Polyester filament production-sales in Jiangsu-Zhejiang were generally weak on Tuesday. As of around 3:45 PM, the average estimated production-sales ratio was 40-50%. Production-sales ratios for several factories were 40%, 35%, 100%, 30%, 90%, 105%, 70%, 20%, 20%, 35%, 40%, 0%, 40%, 40%, 90%, respectively. EG: Supply increases while demand is stable. Domestically, the ethylene glycol industry operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 74.2%. Specifically, the operating rate for syngas-based units increased by 3.4 percentage points month-on-month to 79.3%, which is at a high level for the same period in previous years and still has room for further increase. Current prices are not sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts. Affected by this, the spot basis is weak, and warehouse receipts continue to flow in. Although rising freight costs and maintenance of Middle Eastern plants may reduce imports in the first quarter, ample domestic supply means overall supply pressure remains significant. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory in January, with February potentially being the period of greatest inventory pressure in the first half of the year. Overall, recently driven by a warming macroeconomic sentiment, the EG May contract price has rebounded from 3700 to near the 3900 mark, touching the 3900-4000 resistance zone. Strategy: sell high and buy low, reference range 3700-4000. Relevant market news Facilities: The restart time for a 200 kt/year syngas-based ethylene glycol unit in Henan is to be determined. The unit was shut down around the end of 2025 for catalyst replacement, with an expected downtime of about two weeks, accounting for 0.7% of national capacity. PF: Supply and demand are both stable. The operating rate for spun yarn direct-spun polyester staple fiber remained flat month-on-month at 99.1%. Low inventory at enterprises supports production willingness, and industry operating rates remain high, with relatively limited announced maintenance plans. On the demand side, downstream yarn enterprises are entering the pre-holiday winding-down phase. While formulating holiday plans, their purchasing attitude is becoming more cautious. Coupled with pressure for capital repatriation, enterprises are generally accelerating collections, further highlighting the characteristics of the demand off-season. The operating rate for polyester yarn decreased by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month to 64.3%. It is expected that the polyester yarn operating rate will accelerate its decline starting from the latter part of the month, thereby suppressing procurement demand for staple fiber. In the short term, weak terminal demand will continue to suppress prices, but cost-side support remains. The PF March futures price is expected to follow raw material prices and trade with a stronger bias and volatility, with medium-term support at 6300-6400. Relevant market news Production-Sales: Direct-spun polyester staple sales were mixed on Tuesday. As of around 3:00 PM, the average production-sales ratio was 87%. Production-sales ratios for some factories were: 35%, 25%, 100%, 105%, 50%, 100%, 40%, 50%, 30%, 174%. PR: Supply increases while demand weakens. On the supply side, the bottle chip industry operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points month-on-month to 74.8%. With the restart of Sanfangxiang, industry operating rates have improved but remain at a low level for the same period in previous years. Few subsequent reduction or shutdown plans have been announced so far. On the demand side, it is currently the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, and the room for production recovery in January is expected to be limited. Consequently, downstream rigid demand purchasing is weak, and stocking willingness is low, continuously dampening market sentiment. In the short term, the weak terminal demand situation is difficult to reverse quickly. Bottle chips remain the weakest link fundamentally in the polyester chain, but cost-side support persists. The PR March futures price is expected to follow raw material prices and trade with a stronger bias and volatility, with medium-term support at 5850-5950. Soda Ash Soda ash futures fell slightly on Tuesday, while spot prices held steady to lower. The commodity market was mostly lower on Tuesday, with weakening sentiment. Fundamentally, recent maintenance schedules for soda ash have decreased. Last week, soda ash production increased by 57,000 tons week-on-week to 754,000 tons. Recent production increases have added pressure on the supply side. Downstream demand declined slightly. The latest inventory at alkali plants decreased by 8,000 tons from last Thursday to 1.565 million tons. The latest delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 13,000 tons from the previous week to 377,000 tons. Two float glass production lines and one photovoltaic glass production line underwent cold repairs last week. Recently, the combined daily melting capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, reducing demand for heavy soda ash, while demand for light soda ash remains stable temporarily. Midstream and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Soda ash imports slightly decreased to 300 tons in November, while exports fell to 189,400 tons. Macro-wise, recent domestic real estate sales data declined month-on-month and were below the level of the same period last year; international macro influences are relatively favorable (US dollar index rising, trade friction concerns easing); domestic policy disturbances have weakened. Overall, in the short term, soda ash supply is increasing while demand is relatively weak, and "anti-involution" competition is intensifying. However, fundamental drags are present, and soda ash is trading with volatility for now. On warehouse receipts, soda ash warehouse receipts increased by 993 lots on Tuesday to 5,213 lots. Short-term soda ash futures price volatility has intensified. SA2605 intraday reference range 1200-1240. Glass Glass futures fell sharply on Tuesday, while spot prices were mostly steady. The short-term fundamentals of glass are marginally improving, with supply pressure easing. Glass production decreased week-on-week last week, downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved, and inventory decreased week-on-week. The latest glass inventory decreased by 67,000 tons week-on-week to 2.776 million tons, up 27.0% year-on-year. Two glass production lines underwent cold repairs last week. The daily melting capacity of glass has recently declined. The latest in-operation daily melting capacity is 150,065 T/D, down about 4.6% year-on-year. Domestic completed building area from January to November decreased by 18.0% year-on-year (the decline widened). Recent real estate sales data declined month-on-month and were below the level of the same period last year. The latest number of glass deep-processing orders decreased by 1.1 days week-on-week to 8.6 days, down 16.1% year-on-year. Short-term glass supply is declining, while demand is seasonally weakening. Futures prices are expected to trade with volatility for now. Short-term glass futures prices are oscillating at low levels. FG2605 intraday reference range 1080-1130.
Comments