According to a research report from Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd., even without considering geopolitical impacts, the global medium to long-term supply-demand balance for coal has entered a phase of marginal market tightening. The firm maintains a bullish outlook on global coal resources, anticipating that the global coal price benchmark will continue to rise. It reiterates a strategic positive view on the energy super-cycle over the next 5 to 10 years. Key points from the report are as follows:
A reaffirmation of earlier forecasts: Pre-holiday inventory restocking arrived by the end of the month, driving a significant coal price increase back above the 800 yuan/ton mark. The seasonal price rally is just beginning. In the half-week leading up to the holiday, portside coal prices surged, climbing over 20 yuan/ton in three days to break through the 800 yuan/ton threshold, exceeding market expectations. This outcome was accurately predicted as early as mid-April, confirming the领先的预判 again. The core reasons for the stronger-than-expected inventory build and price increase stem from fundamental shifts in both supply and demand. Clues were visible in March's macroeconomic data, which formed the basis for the earlier forecast. March thermal coal imports already showed a year-on-year decline exceeding 4 million tons, and the contraction is expected to be more pronounced in April due to the widening price gap between domestic and international coal. On the demand side, the most surprising factor has been the combination of global manufacturing order reshoring (partly due to geopolitical factors) boosting electricity consumption in secondary industries and weather conditions causing China's power coal demand to shift from the off-season to the peak season earlier than usual. This has led to coastal daily coal consumption reaching a record high for the period and power plant inventories dropping to their lowest level since 2022. Given the significantly low port inventories and rising daily consumption, substantial restocking by power plants is anticipated. Furthermore, unlike previous years, this period is likely to coincide with inventory rebuilding in the coal chemical industry, potentially with greater intensity than before. The major coal price increase has only just begun.
Thermal Coal: Restocking arrived early, driving a sharp price increase. As of April 30, 2026, the Q5500 FOB price at Huanghua Port in Northern China was 813 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (4.1%) from the previous week. Supply and demand have noticeably improved, leading to early restocking and a significant price surge.
Coking Coal: Pig iron production has stabilized; future price increases may depend on momentum from thermal coal. The price for Shanxi-produced primary coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (1.8%) from the previous week. The price for Hebei-produced primary coking coal was 1,590 yuan/ton, also up 30 yuan/ton (1.9%). Daily pig iron output remained flat week-on-week at 2.39 million tons. Based on marginal supply-demand balances in April, coking coal's fundamentals were weaker than thermal coal's. However, as thermal coal prices are expected to rise earlier due to preparations for peak summer demand in May, this is anticipated to subsequently pull coking coal prices higher.
Risk warnings include economic growth falling short of expectations, a large-scale influx of imported coal, and supply exceeding forecasts.
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