On April 29th, the medium to long-term bullish stance of international institutions on gold remains firm. Moneta Markets stated that, despite a short-term price correction bringing gold near $4,600, major investment banks generally maintain optimistic forecasts for the gold price by the end of 2026. A recent J.P. Morgan report raised its year-end target price to $6,300 per ounce. BNP Paribas anticipates an average price of $5,620, while Commerzbank sees it reaching $5,000. Macquarie offered a more conservative prediction of $4,323. While institutional views vary, the overall sentiment is skewed positive.
From a structural perspective, the rebalancing of the global monetary system is ongoing. Moneta Markets believes that continuous net gold purchasing by global central banks for multiple years, rising demand for alternatives to US dollar assets, coupled with the absence of a turning point in debt expansion among major economies, have accentuated precious metals' role as the ultimate store of value. A World Bank report indicates that although gold and silver prices face short-term ceilings, medium to long-term drivers remain concerns over currency devaluation and safe-haven demand.
From a trading standpoint, the current downside space for gold is relatively limited. Short-term volatility is primarily influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations and US dollar strength; however, buying support at deeper correction levels is robust. The $4,500 level is viewed by many investment banks as a key medium-term support. Technically, the monthly chart maintains a bullish alignment, and the medium to long-term price structure for gold remains unbroken. The prevailing consensus among institutions is to treat corrections as buying opportunities.
Looking ahead, gold is expected to resume its upward trend driven by structural logic. Moneta Markets anticipates that once interest rate decisions from major global central banks are finalized and macro risk pricing normalizes, gold prices will re-enter a primary upward phase. Challenging new periodic highs within the year remains a high-probability scenario. Investors are advised to participate with a strategic mindset, controlling single-position risks and maintaining patience for medium to long-term allocation.
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