2022年，全球股市或将经受“紧缩”震荡

新华社2022-01-03

2021年，伴随世界经济从新冠疫情冲击中逐步复苏，全球股市在宽松货币政策及财政刺激措施支持下表现整体向上。展望2022年，美联储等主要经济体央行货币政策转向，与疫情反复带来的不确定性，成为市场面临的两大突出风险。分析人士认为，世界经济复苏尚不稳固，一旦货币环境过度收紧，全球股市可能经受政策“紧缩”带来的震荡。全球股市整体向上得益于世界经济复苏、企业盈利改善、流动性充裕等因素，2021年全球主要股市...

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winwin_Tan
2022-01-03
winwin_Tan
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kenp
2022-01-03
kenp
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并在11月中旬创下历史新高；伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数表现稳健，全年上涨14.3%。相对于欧美股市，日本股市涨幅较为温和，东京股市日经股指去年全年上涨4.9%。在美联储收紧货币政策预期下，一些新兴经济体面临资本外流压力，股市表现受到拖累。巴西圣保罗博维斯帕指数全年下跌11.93%，结束自2015年以来连续六年上涨势头。央行收水引发担忧疫情发生以来，各经济体普遍实施宽松货币政策和财政刺激措施应对冲击、提振经济，显著推动股市走高。然而，伴随全球范围通胀抬头，美联储等主要经济体央行酝酿或已经开始收紧货币政策，对市场构成压力。受国际能源价格高企、全球供应链梗阻等因素影响，全球通胀明显攀升，其中美国通胀压力尤为显著。2021年11月美国消费者价格指数同比上涨6.8%，创近40年来最大同比涨幅。为抑制通胀，美联储同年12月宣布加速“缩表”，且2022年可能多次加息。从历史上看，美联储货币政策进入紧缩周期往往引发全球主要资产价格变化，股市可能在短期内剧烈震荡，特别是新兴市场与发展中国家会面临资本外流、本币贬值、国内风险资产价格下跌等不利冲击。日生基础研究所研究员上野刚志认为，美国退出宽松货币政策并转向紧缩对全球股市的负面影响可能超出预期。与此同时，变异新冠病毒奥密克戎毒株蔓延令全球疫情防控再度面临挑战。南非报告发现奥密克戎毒株后全球股市一度大跌，凸显市场脆弱性。德国德卡银行首席经济学家乌尔里希·卡特尔预测，如果德国应对奥密克戎毒株扩散的管控措施持续到2022年春季，经济可能面临较大影响，股市或出现剧烈修正。除此之外，2022年将举行的美国国会中期选举、巴西总统大选等地缘政治因素也将对股市走势产生影响。市场波动或将加剧2022年全球股市将如何演进？分析人士认为，由于各国复苏路径分化、政策空间不一，股市走向也不尽相同。考虑到货币环境趋紧、疫情持续扰动两大风险因素，高波动性可能成为主要股市的共同特征。德意志银行认为，2022年全球股市前景“仍然积极”。企业盈利持续增长有望继续推高股市，但上涨势头可能放缓，且市场走势或出现分化。美国方面，随着美联储收紧货币政策、财政刺激措施逐渐退出，美股或将面临考验。市场研究机构“投机商”公司创始人拉里·贝内迪克特认为，2022年美股预计将经历较为艰难的一年，主要股指都将呈现不同程度下挫。欧洲方面，德国《商报》认为，2021年德国上市公司利润增速超过股价涨幅，意味着股价在某种程度上被低估，预计2022年DAX指数将上涨12%左右。上野刚志认为，随着日本经济逐步复苏及企业业绩改善，东京股市2022年大概率继续上涨，日经股指年底有望升至30000点以上。巴西瓦加斯基金会经济学家若埃尔松·桑帕约表示，美联储加息将使资金撤离新兴市场国家，加上巴西总统大选等因素，2022年巴西股市或将大幅波动。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9001129062,"gmtCreate":1641195312318,"gmtModify":1676533581584,"author":{"id":"3581581906530118","authorId":"3581581906530118","name":"winwin_Tan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581581906530118","idStr":"3581581906530118"},"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001129062","repostId":1153526400,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9001120855,"gmtCreate":1641194738896,"gmtModify":1676533581568,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577343858256661","idStr":"3577343858256661"},"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001120855","repostId":1153526400,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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