Sinolink Securities released a research report stating that hydrogen energy has gained heightened top-level attention in 2025, with frequent national policies and high-level positioning. The key difference between the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the "14th Five-Year Plan" periods lies in the urgency of policy implementation and the higher readiness of infrastructure. As the second half of the energy revolution unfolds—decarbonizing non-electric sectors—hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol are indispensable as critical energy carriers, presenting significant development opportunities for the entire industry chain.
Currently in its early commercialization phase, the sector is primarily policy-driven. Investors should focus on areas with strong domestic and international resonance, clear demand visibility, and high elasticity. Key sub-sectors include green methanol, hydrogen production equipment, fuel cell vehicles, and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs).
**Green Methanol: Global Demand Resonance Drives Industry Breakout** Green methanol is gaining traction in green shipping, with synchronized demand domestically and internationally. EU carbon taxes and IMO policies are steering the shipping industry toward sustainability, creating a clear long-term trend. Short-term projections indicate that 334 methanol-powered vessels will soon enter service, generating demand for over 7 million tons of methanol. In the medium to long term, a 10% global penetration rate for green methanol could drive demand beyond 40 million tons. Investment opportunities favor early-stage producers with strong downstream partnerships and cost controls, which may yield excess profit elasticity. Over time, cost reductions will accelerate adoption in shipping and chemical applications, with electro-methanol emerging as the dominant future pathway.
**Hydrogen Production Equipment: Policy-Driven Growth with High Visibility** Direct green power integration and equipment cost reductions are enhancing the economic viability of green hydrogen. Using wind power-coupled hydrogen production as an example, Sinolink Securities conducted an economic assessment under Inner Mongolia’s policy framework. Assuming 60% of electricity is allocated to hydrogen production, with wind turbine costs at ¥3.8/kWh, storage at ¥0.85/Wh, and hydrogen equipment at ¥0.9/W, the project achieves an IRR exceeding 6.5%, unlocking previously stalled green hydrogen initiatives. Direct green power connections are pivotal, enabling significant cost reductions and expanding demand from price-insensitive sectors like transportation and green methanol to industrial and energy storage applications.
**Fuel Cell Vehicles: Clear Path to Rebound** Key uncertainties have been resolved, with infrastructure, system cost reductions, and application scenarios now well-defined. Upstream hydrogen supply is scaling up, hydrogen refueling stations are proliferating, and supportive policies—such as toll exemptions for fuel cell trucks—are accelerating adoption. This will drive volume growth, revitalizing sector sentiment. Leading fuel cell companies have gone public, fostering a sector-wide momentum.
**SOFCs: New Demand from AI Data Centers** SOFCs are gaining traction as primary power sources for AI data centers due to their rapid deployment, scalability, and high efficiency (85% in cogeneration mode). At a natural gas price of $4/MMBtu and a system lifespan of 43,800 hours, SOFC generation costs $0.11/kWh. U.S. IRA and OBBB subsidies could lower this to $0.09/kWh by 2026. With scale-driven cost reductions, SOFCs could achieve $0.06/kWh at 2.5GW+ production levels, competing with gas turbines ($0.048–$0.107/kWh) in broader industrial markets.
**Investment Recommendations** The sector remains policy-driven in its early commercialization phase. Focus on high-conviction, high-elasticity opportunities: - **Green Methanol**: Producers with early deployment and secure sales channels. - **Hydrogen Equipment**: Companies with project experience amid optimized competition. - **Fuel Cell Vehicles**: Poised for breakout as costs decline and policies take effect. - **SOFCs**: Bloom Energy (BE.US) and core supply chain players.
**Risks**: Policy delays, slow technological advancements, and project execution lags.
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