On April 6, the gold market was closed for the entire day due to a U.S. holiday. For trading strategies on the following Monday, it was suggested to monitor the support levels at $4,600 and $4,550, with resistance levels for any rebound seen at $4,700 and $4,800. As expected, gold opened lower on Monday, dropping to $4,600 before stabilizing, then rebounding to $4,678 where it encountered resistance. It is currently trading around $4,649, maintaining a consolidative pattern, which aligns with prior forecasts.
Analysts noted that gold had stabilized and risen earlier last week, reaching a new weekly high, after the U.S. signaled a potential end to hostilities within two to three weeks. This led to a short-term pullback in oil prices and a decline in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, supporting gold's rebound. However, by Thursday, former President Trump’s latest remarks on Iran, which offered no timeline for ending the conflict and emphasized continued military operations in the coming weeks, reignited market concerns over energy supply disruptions. Oil prices surged sharply, nearly erasing the week’s losses, while the dollar and Treasury yields rebounded, causing gold to retreat from its highs.
Gold opened lower on Monday but found support and staged a modest rebound after sources indicated that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are engaged in deep discussions over a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement that could ultimately end the war. However, the rebound remains noticeably constrained. In recent periods, surging oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions have heightened inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for longer. These elevated rate expectations continue to weigh on gold.
On the daily chart, after stabilizing and encountering resistance, gold is currently holding above $4,600, continuing its sideways movement. Key support levels are seen at the psychological $4,600 mark—Monday’s intraday low and a previous level where declines bottomed out—followed by the $4,550 area near last Thursday’s low. On the upside, resistance is observed at $4,700, last Thursday’s rebound high, and further at $4,800, where the prior advance stalled and reversed. While the 5-day moving average has formed a golden crossover and the MACD indicator also shows a bullish crossover, suggesting underlying rebound potential, the KDJ and RSI indicators are turning downward from golden cross formations, indicating that upward momentum remains clearly suppressed.
Weekend gold outlook: Reports of potential ceasefire talks have provided short-term stabilization, but persistent inflation worries are dampening expectations for interest rate cuts, significantly limiting gold’s rebound. A range-trading approach is recommended, with attention on support at $4,600 and $4,550, and resistance levels at $4,700 and $4,800.
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