The initial fortnight following SpaceX's debut on public markets has been marked by significant price volatility, with the stock experiencing multiple sharp rallies and steep declines.
The company's ambitious, science-fiction-like vision for growth, coupled with massive media exposure and a founder with a legion of devoted followers, has ignited a fervent investment rush, drawing in a large number of retail investors.
Despite some analysts forecasting a challenging road ahead, few investors are currently willing to place bearish bets against the company.
After completing the largest initial public offering in history, the stock surged for several consecutive days, briefly pushing its market capitalization past that of Amazon and Microsoft and achieving a gain of over 60% from its $135 IPO price at its peak.
However, the bullish run did not last. Following single-day drops of 5% and 4%, the stock plunged another 16%, spreading a sense of caution in the market; prices have since stabilized somewhat, fluctuating within a narrower range.
This extreme volatility underscores the unpredictable nature of a stock driven primarily by its narrative.
The grand vision for space exploration, saturation-level media coverage, and the star power of its founder have collectively fueled intense investor enthusiasm for SpaceX in the capital markets.
Gil Luria, head of technology research at D.A. Davidson, noted that while most stocks are valued based on earnings multiples and comparisons to industry peers, companies led by Elon Musk defy this conventional logic. Their share prices are dictated more by future market expectations.
Luria added that the rise in Tesla's stock has been more reliant on expectations for autonomous robotaxis and the humanoid robot Optimus, rather than its traditional car sales business. Similarly, SpaceX's valuation is largely supported by the ambitious vision for Mars exploration or the potential of future ventures like space-based data centers.
On Friday, June 12, 2026, SpaceX began trading on the Nasdaq exchange in New York, with screens displaying images of founder Elon Musk. The record-breaking IPO propelled the company into the ranks of the world's largest public firms and brought Musk within striking distance of becoming the first trillionaire.
A large number of retail investors, captivated by this compelling future narrative, rushed to buy shares.
Viraj Patel, a macro strategist, stated that SpaceX perfectly embodies the elements that have historically attracted retail investors: a disruptive technology sector, a bold long-term vision, a celebrity founder, and massive media visibility.
Data shows that in the first five trading days, retail investors were net buyers of SpaceX stock to the tune of $405 million, setting a recent record for net retail inflows into a new listing.
Mike Coop, Chief Investment Officer for EMEA at Morningstar Wealth, commented that the "Elon mania" effect has drawn vast amounts of retail capital into SpaceX, continuously fueling speculative fervor, which in turn amplifies price swings—a pattern previously seen with Tesla.
Prior to the IPO, a Morningstar analyst report sparked discussion by suggesting the stock's fair value was less than half of its targeted $1.75 trillion valuation.
Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst, observed that after the initial strong surge post-listing, company fundamentals began to reassert their influence on the share price, leading to a subsequent pullback.
As anticipated, Musk has continued to publicly outline prospects for rapid revenue growth. On June 14, he stated that SpaceX could achieve annual revenue of around $1 trillion by 2030.
This represents a monumental leap from the company's full-year 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. The company reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and a further loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
Coop believes that, in the long term, SpaceX faces two core risks in the capital markets.
First, early institutional investors will likely begin selling their holdings to realize gains, steadily increasing the supply of shares available for trading. Second, the company remains in a phase of heavy losses, requiring continuous massive capital investment, creating significant uncertainty about its future, while the current share price already appears richly valued.
Despite these substantial risks, the number of investors currently willing to short SpaceX remains very low.
Michael Burry, the investor portrayed in "The Big Short," publicly stated on June 16 that he holds no short position in SpaceX. While he questions the sustainability of its nearly $3 trillion market capitalization, he noted that the cost of bearish options on the stock remains prohibitively high.
Although some short-sellers have started to take notice of the stock, the vast majority of bearish funds are still hesitant to bet against Musk's ventures.
Only time will tell how far SpaceX's share price can be sustained by its story. It is foreseeable that this stock is poised for more roller-coaster rides of dramatic volatility in the future.
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