Amid escalating geopolitical risks triggering a sharp decline in global mainstream risk assets, coupled with some investors potentially taking profits, precious metals such as gold and silver experienced a steep drop today (January 30). The Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) followed the market trend with a corrective pullback, its intraday price falling more than 9%. However, capital flowed in against the trend; as of the time of writing, the ETF recorded real-time net subscriptions of 142 million units! Among its constituents, Hunan Gold bucked the trend with five consecutive limit-ups, Western Gold edged higher, while the remaining 58 stocks declined, with 15 hitting the lower limit-down.
Why is capital flowing against the trend into the nonferrous metals sector? The fundamental factors driving the price floor for nonferrous metals may not have fundamentally changed. Firstly, from a macroeconomic perspective: 1) The Federal Reserve remains on a path of interest rate cuts, providing a loose monetary environment; 2) Rising geopolitical uncertainties are boosting safe-haven demand; 3) Continuously climbing U.S. debt and deficits are raising global concerns about their sustainability and the credibility of the U.S. dollar. Against the backdrop of de-dollarization, central banks of multiple countries are reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves, promoting diversification of reserve systems. Secondly, from an industrial perspective: Emerging industries such as new energy, AI, and military aerospace are continuously releasing demand for nonferrous metals. Meanwhile, capital expenditure for major nonferrous metal varieties essentially peaked around 2011, entering a prolonged contraction period thereafter, resulting in a significant industry output gap. Persistent supply-side constraints continue to support industry prices, highlighting the scarcity and strategic value of these metals. Thirdly, there is support at the earnings level: As of January 28, among the 60 listed companies covered by the Nonferrous Metals ETF, 24 have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts. Of these, 21 are projecting profits, accounting for nearly 90%; 20 forecast a year-on-year positive growth in net profit, indicating generally positive earnings expectations for nonferrous metal stocks. Industry insiders believe the nonferrous metals rally is likely to continue. The current high-profitability state of the nonferrous metals industry may be sustained for a relatively long cycle. Driven by persistent new demand, the nonferrous metals sector is gradually acquiring growth attributes and deserves a value re-rating. Furthermore, compared to their international peers, domestic nonferrous metals enterprises are significantly undervalued, yet their growth potential and core competitiveness are not inferior. Simultaneously, continuous exploration and breakthroughs by domestic companies in core technological areas such as exploration, mining, and smelting have also made outstanding contributions to global mining development. While the market is generally bullish on the future performance of nonferrous metals, Dongfang Jincheng points out that short-term caution is warranted against risks of speculative funds taking profits, which could lead to increased volatility. Huatai Securities recommends a medium allocation to the nonferrous metals sector, suggesting a 10%-20% weighting within one's fund portfolio to both capture potential upside from the sector's rise and help diversify risk. [The Nonferrous Metals Trend Has Arrived, An 'Super Cycle' Appears Unstoppable] The Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its feeder fund (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track a benchmark index that comprehensively covers sectors like copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, spanning different cycles such as precious metals (safe-haven), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery). This full-category coverage allows for better capture of the sector's beta movements. Additionally, this ETF is a margin trading security, making it an efficient tool for a one-click allocation to the nonferrous metals sector.
Reminder: Recent market volatility may be significant; short-term gains or losses do not indicate future performance. Investors must make rational investment decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, paying close attention to position sizing and risk management. ETF Fee Information: When subscribing for or redeeming fund units, subscription/redemption agencies may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. Intra-market trading fees are subject to the rates actually charged by securities firms. The ETF does not charge a sales service fee. Feeder Fund Fee Information: For the Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class A), the subscription fee rate is 1,000 RMB per transaction for subscription amounts of 2 million RMB (inclusive) or above, 0.6% for amounts between 1 million RMB (inclusive) and 2 million RMB, and 1% for amounts below 1 million RMB. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days, and 0% for holding periods of 7 days (inclusive) or more. No sales service fee is charged. The Huabao CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class C) charges no subscription fee. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days, and 0% for holding periods of 7 days (inclusive) or more. A sales service fee of 0.3% is charged. Risk Disclosure: The Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF and its feeder fund passively track the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index. The base date for this index is December 31, 2013, and it was launched on July 13, 2015. The index's performance over the past five complete years is as follows: 2021, +35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, +2.96%; 2025, +91.67%. The index's constituent stocks are adjusted according to its compilation rules, and its past historical performance does not indicate its future performance. The mention of index constituents herein is for illustrative purposes only; descriptions of individual stocks are not investment advice in any form and do not represent the holdings or trading动向 of any fund managed by the management company. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk等级 as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for investors with a Balanced (C3) or higher risk profile. Suitability matching opinions should be based on the selling institution's assessment. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, commentary, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of expression) is for reference only. Investors are solely responsible for any independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts herein do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the reader, and no liability is accepted for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks; the past performance of a fund does not indicate its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Invest in funds with caution.
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