The overall analytical method: from the macro to the micro. Is the broader commodity complex rising or falling? Rising. The strongest commodity sectors are: Precious Metals, Non-ferrous Metals. The strongest individual commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum. Conclusion: Focus on long-biased operations centered around the strongest metals. Global Context: The inflation narrative persists, hot money is flowing, the US Dollar's valuation is questionable—Trump suggests weakness while Powell advocates strength. Amid this chaotic backdrop, gold and silver have surged, and copper hit new highs, once again highlighting their financial attributes. In the current environment, it is no longer advisable to stubbornly analyze supply and demand alone; speculative and financial attributes are becoming significantly more pronounced. Core Trading Instruments and Strategy Execution: Fuel Oil 2603 - Initial Strategy: Long-biased. Position size not exceeding 10% of total equity. Entry zone: 2780-2810 points. Stop-loss: 2725-2700 points. Take-profit: 2875-2900 points (Rationale: Rising crude oil costs). - Intraday Execution: - Prices surged, reaching new highs, triggering take-profit for half/one-third of the position; stop-loss adjusted upwards to 2765-2785 points. - As the uptrend continued, stop-loss was further raised to 2770-2790 points, maintaining a steady hold. - Final profit reached 8%; profits were taken on portions of the position incrementally, with the remainder held steadily. Shanghai Silver 2604 - Initial Strategy: Long-biased. Position size not exceeding 10% of total equity. Entry zone: 29500-30020 points. Stop-loss: 28630-29630 points. Take-profit: 30400-31400 points (Rationale: Rising safe-haven demand). - Intraday Execution: - Prices approached historical highs, testing the 30000-point level, triggering a 10% profit-taking for half/one-third of the position. - After reducing the position, the stop-loss was adjusted up to 29400-29800 points, continuing to hold. - The rally persisted, profits reached 15%; further incremental profit-taking occurred on portions of the position, with the remainder held. - By the close, profits exceeded 30%; another half of the remaining position was liquidated to lock in gains. Shanghai Copper 2603 - Initial Strategy: Long-biased. Position size not exceeding 10% of total equity. Entry zone: 105000-106500 points. Stop-loss: 102200-103500 points. Take-profit: 107200-108600 points (Rationale: Boosted by optimistic expectations). - Intraday Execution: - Prices experienced a strong upward thrust, quickly achieving a 17% profit, triggering take-profit for half the position. - After reducing the position, the stop-loss was raised to 104000-105000 points, holding the remainder. - The advance continued, setting a new historical high; profits reached 23%, leading to further profit-taking on a portion. - Final profits exceeded 30%; only a small residual position was held, with the rest liquidated. Overall Trading Results: Performance by Instrument: Fuel oil, Shanghai silver, and Shanghai copper all demonstrated strong performance, registering significant profits. Specifically, Shanghai copper gained over 30%, Shanghai silver over 30%, and fuel oil over 8%, resulting in an impressive overall return. Strategy Effectiveness: - The global macro environment remained tilted towards optimism and risk-on, validating the initial long-biased assessment which aligned well with the instruments' upward trends. - Given the high volatility and market unease surrounding gold and silver, proactively implementing volatility-reduction strategies—such as incremental profit-taking and dynamically adjusting stop-losses—proved effective in locking in gains, controlling drawdowns, and balancing returns with risk. - To mitigate risks associated with the night session, positions were consistently reduced before the market close, manually controlling for unpredictable factors. Risk Management: Strict adherence to position limits (no single instrument exceeding 10% of equity) was maintained throughout. Dynamic adjustment of stop-loss levels ensured no significant risk exposure, achieving a principle of "steady profits without losses, advancing step by step." Review and Reflections: The remaining positions in fuel oil, Shanghai silver, and Shanghai copper will continue to be held with dynamically adjusted stop-losses. Attention must be paid to potential pullback risks following the price surges, with readiness to take profits and exit promptly. Precious metals (gold, silver) and Shanghai copper remain within strong bullish phases, warranting close external monitoring for new entry opportunities. The emergence of a COVID-19 situation in India raises questions about potential impacts on cotton cultivation; price movements deserve attention. Financial instability in Indonesia could affect palm oil supplies; this is worth tracking. The rapid ascent of precious metals has objectively increased volatility and risk across all commodity sectors. Position sizing should be adjusted accordingly, exercising discipline and restraint when establishing new positions. How will the frenzy in gold and silver ultimately conclude? Could overseas capital potentially engineer a significant downturn during the Chinese Spring Festival holiday?
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