Oilseed Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans declined as traders adjusted positions ahead of the long holiday. Soybean meal futures fell, while soybean oil futures rose. The U.S. soybean export sales report showed weekly net sales of 353,000 metric tons, a decrease of 49% compared to the previous week and 18% below the four-week average. Net sales to mainland China increased by 141,000 metric tons. A stronger U.S. dollar made American soy products relatively more expensive, reducing their export competitiveness. Domestically, oilseed meal prices traded within a narrow range, continuing the pattern of near-term weakness and longer-term strength. With the holiday approaching, market participants showed low willingness to hold positions, leading to a decrease in open interest. Live hog spot prices continued to decline, fueling expectations of an accelerated reduction in breeding capacity, which is unfavorable for soybean meal consumption. Spot soybean meal transactions remained sluggish. Cost considerations remain the primary theme; short-term trading is advised.
Edible Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil futures advanced, supported by uncertainty surrounding the resolution of Middle East conflicts and expectations of lower March production. Supply-side data indicated a slight increase in production, with end-March inventories estimated between 2.0 and 2.2 million metric tons. This inventory level provided support to the market. Domestically, edible oil markets followed the downward trend, moving in line with import costs. Spot prices fluctuated with the futures market, with the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil exceeding 1,000 yuan per metric ton, which curbed palm oil consumption. Expectations of lower soybean crushing volumes suggest a potential decline in soybean oil stocks, keeping spot basis levels firm. Among the different oils, palm oil showed relative strength compared to soybean oil and rapeseed oil. End-users maintained a cautious stance, purchasing on an as-needed basis. With potential de-escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions and the Qingming holiday approaching, capital is expected to flow out of the market, likely keeping edible oils within a range-bound pattern. Strategically, short-term participation is recommended.
Live Hogs: On Thursday, nearby live hog futures continued their decline, with the main 2605 contract falling 1% on the day, as prices continued to search for a bottom. Currently, the average spot price for external三元 standard hogs in Shandong is 9.82 yuan/kg, down from the previous day. Mainstream quotes for 105-125kg small standard hogs are between 9.30-9.80 yuan/kg. Quotes for 125-140kg hogs are mainly between 9.35-9.70 yuan/kg. The price for 7kg piglets (三元) from large producers (三元) is 180-220 yuan/head. In Hebei, the average spot price for external三元 standard hogs is 9.42 yuan/kg, also down from yesterday. Mainstream quotes for 105-125kg standard hogs are between 9.15-9.60 yuan/kg. Quotes for 125-140kg hogs are mainly between 9.20-9.65 yuan/kg. The price for 7kg piglets (三元) from large producers (三元) is 170-220 yuan/head. Overall, the ample supply in the hog market continues to pressure prices. The weak price performance suggests an extended period of bottom consolidation, with expectations for prices to remain subdued.
Eggs: On Thursday, egg futures prices adjusted within a narrow range, with the main 2605 contract rising 0.67% to close at 3,438 yuan per 500 kilograms. Affected by the current position limit system, the position limit for the 2605 contract has been reduced from 1,200 lots to 400 lots. On the spot market, data from SCI99 shows the national average egg price was 3.27 yuan/jin yesterday, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. In production areas, pink-shell eggs in Ningjin were priced at 3.15 yuan/jin, while brown-shell eggs in Heishan held steady at 3.1 yuan/jin. In consumption areas, brown-shell eggs in Puxi fell 0.06 yuan/jin to 3.42 yuan/jin, while brown-shell eggs in Guangzhou remained flat at 3.5 yuan/jin. Traders purchased and sold based on immediate needs. Arrivals in consumption area markets increased compared to the previous day; most egg prices were stable, with only a few showing minor adjustments. Supply remains relatively ample, while demand absorption capacity is limited. Until a substantial improvement is seen on the supply side, eggs are expected to remain range-bound. Supported by cost factors, the floor for egg futures prices has been rising. Market attention is on potential changes in farmers' culling intentions and their impact on future supply.
Corn: On Thursday, corn futures adjusted with lower open interest, continuing their range-bound performance. Recently, corn prices in Northeast China showed no adjustment, with moderate market activity. Buying companies at northern ports required suppliers to provide invoices or self-production certificates, leading to slightly higher offers. Current market activity is relatively subdued. There is no clear news regarding policy-related grain auctions, suggesting short-term prices are unlikely to see significant adjustments. In the North China producing region, corn prices were generally stable with a slight firm bias. Traders reduced sales, and arrivals at deep-processing plants were low, prompting these enterprises to raise prices to encourage deliveries. Brief overcast and rainy weather in some parts of North China had little impact on market activity. Corn prices in consumption areas were mostly stable, with some localized weakness. Downstream enterprises made purchases based on rigid demand and replenished stocks cautiously, with high-price transactions lacking momentum. Combined with substitution effects from imported barley and sorghum, and the influence of wheat auctions, the market finds it easier to stabilize than to rise. Sentiment is dominated by wait-and-see attitudes, resulting in light trading activity. Price discrepancies have emerged between producing and consuming regions. While suppliers are trying to support prices, demand remains tepid, pointing to weak, range-bound corn prices in the short term.
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