In the short to medium term, space-based solar power is unlikely to achieve large-scale commercial application and cannot absorb the current overcapacity in terrestrial photovoltaics.
Recently, the A-share photovoltaic sector experienced a broad surge, with multiple stocks hitting the 20% daily upside limit. Liancheng CNC (920368.BJ) and Opai (920414.BJ) even recorded "30cm" limit-up gains, while solar concept stocks in the Hong Kong market also resonated upwards. The rally was ignited by US billionaire Elon Musk's latest endorsement of space-based solar power at the Davos Forum, injecting strong thematic expectations into the long-depressed photovoltaic sector.
However, beneath the surface of speculative concept trading, the photovoltaic industry faces a "weak reality" of widespread losses for two and a half consecutive years, phased overcapacity, and persistently low product prices. Based on disclosed 2025 performance forecasts, major photovoltaic manufacturers including Tongwei Co.,Ltd. (600438.SH), Jinko Solar Co.,Ltd. (688223.SH), Trina Solar Co.,Ltd. (688599.SH), Ja Solar Technology Co.,Ltd. (002459.SZ), TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. (002129.SZ), and Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. (002865.SZ) are expected to see their net losses widen further in 2025, with projected losses ranging from 4 billion to 10 billion yuan.
Only a few photovoltaic enterprises, such as Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.,Ltd. (688303.SH), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. (601012.SH), and Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.,Ltd. (600481.SH), managed to reduce their losses year-on-year. Amid the significant divergence between strong speculative expectations and weak fundamental realities, the industry's balance sheets remain under pressure, making structural repair urgently necessary.
A stark contrast exists between the exuberant capital market speculation on the space solar concept and the widespread, deep losses forecasted for photovoltaic companies in 2025. Statistics show that among 32 listed PV companies that have issued forecasts, 23 anticipate losses (including continued or initial losses), accounting for over 70%.
Losses in the main PV industry chain (polysilicon, modules, cells, wafers) have intensified significantly, primarily due to sluggish end-demand across segments, phased overcapacity, and受阻 product price increases.
Among companies with year-on-year expanding net loss forecasts, integrated leader Tongwei Co.,Ltd. expects a 2025 net loss between 9 billion and 10 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 7.039 billion yuan in the previous year. It is currently the only PV company with a projected loss potentially reaching the 10-billion-yuan scale.
Other manufacturers seeing a sharp increase in loss scale include Trina Solar Co.,Ltd. and Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd., whose projected upper loss limits expanded by 100% or more compared to the previous year. Trina Solar expects a loss of 6.5 billion to 7.5 billion yuan, versus a loss of 3.443 billion yuan a year earlier. The company cited pressure on module prices, coupled with rising costs of key raw materials like polysilicon and silver paste, which eroded module business profitability, while asset impairment provisions also impacted performance.
Jinko Solar Co.,Ltd., also in the module segment, anticipates its first annual loss, estimated at approximately 5.9 billion to 6.9 billion yuan. Jinko similarly attributed the loss to low overall PV module prices in 2025 and the impact of asset impairment provisions on earnings.
Furthermore, wafer manufacturer TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. expects a loss of 8.2 billion to 9.6 billion yuan; Ja Solar Technology Co.,Ltd. anticipates a loss of 4.5 billion to 4.8 billion yuan. Although the loss amounts for these companies are roughly flat year-on-year, the sheer scale of losses, often tens of billions, reflects how leading players struggle to remain immune amid fierce price wars and overcapacity in the main industry chain, with profitability deteriorating sharply.
While most companies face expanding losses, three main-chain PV enterprises—Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.,Ltd., Longi Green Energy Technology Co.,Ltd., and Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.,Ltd.—managed to reduce their deficits. Benefiting from a rebound in polysilicon prices in the second half of last year, Daqo New Energy returned to profitability in Q4. However, due to substantial losses in the first half, full-year performance remains pressured, with an expected loss of 1.418 billion to 1.718 billion yuan, narrowing the loss by 52.17% to 63.21% year-on-year.
Longi Green Energy, which reported a loss of 8.618 billion yuan in 2024, expects a 2025 loss of 6 billion to 6.5 billion yuan, representing a reduction of at least about 2.1 billion yuan. Wafer manufacturer Shuangliang Eco-Energy expects a significant reduction in its 2025 loss, projecting a net loss attributable to shareholders of 780 million to 1.06 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.134 billion yuan a year earlier. The relatively smaller loss scale is primarily due to cost competitiveness in its wafer business and its overall moderate production capacity.
Industry insiders widely believe the development path for space-based solar power involves high uncertainty. It is unlikely to achieve scaled commercial application in the short to medium term and cannot absorb the current overcapacity in terrestrial photovoltaics. The key to the industry emerging from its trough still lies in tangible supply-side consolidation, demand-supply rebalancing, and balance sheet repair.
After the clamor of speculative hype, the PV industry must still confront severe real-world challenges: weakness in both supply and demand. On the supply side, overcapacity leading to low prices is the primary cause of losses.
Rapid expansion of manufacturing capacity in recent years has encountered an environment of slowing global demand growth and increasing trade barriers, leading to a severe supply-demand imbalance. Prices for polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules have fallen below the cash cost lines of many enterprises, directly causing widespread substantial operating losses. Although prices in some segments recently showed signs of stabilizing, significant upward resistance remains due to high inventory levels and the continuous release of new capacity.
Another factor depressing prices is weak demand. The current观望僵局 in the upstream polysilicon market reflects the lack of substantial recovery in end-demand for photovoltaics.
The Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association recently noted that the wait-and-see attitude in the polysilicon market persists for two main reasons: First, while policies like export tax rebates for PV products provide medium-to-long-term demand support expectations, some demand was already pulled forward into 2025, reducing downstream wafer manufacturers' willingness to increase operating rates. Second, the持续飙升 in silver prices has significantly increased production costs for cells and modules, making slight decreases in polysilicon quotes have limited impact on reducing downstream costs.
Beyond these factors, the PV industry also faces pressure from rapidly rising upstream raw material prices. Since Q4 of last year, silver prices have climbed swiftly, with futures and spot prices posting annual gains exceeding those of gold. Entering 2026, the rise in silver prices has been frenzied; currently, COMEX silver futures are quoted at $103.26 per ounce, having risen 46.25% since January and accumulated an increase of over 118% since last October.
Silver paste is a critical raw material in the current mainstream PV technology path, directly affecting cell conversion efficiency and module output power. As the largest component of non-silicon costs for cells, accounting for over 50%, it is a key area for cost reduction. The substantial increase in silver paste costs has significantly pushed up production costs for wafers, cells, and modules, further pressuring corporate operations.
Constrained by持续低迷 product prices and cost pressures, leading companies are pursuing various paste cost-reduction paths. The mainstream trend involves replacing silver with metals like copper and aluminum, including silver-coated copper paste, electroplated copper, and copper paste. Among these, silver-coated copper paste, with its relatively mature technology, has achieved批量导入 for HJT (heterojunction) cells. However, a significant impact of this technological iteration on listed companies' profitability is not yet visible.
Two and a half years of industry-wide losses have substantially eroded the net assets and cash reserves of PV enterprises. Some companies faced significant debt repayment and financing pressures as early as the end of the third quarter of last year. The future industry recovery will inevitably be accompanied by supply-side structural reform characterized by increased capacity utilization, the淘汰 of outdated capacity, and corporate mergers and reorganizations. Only when supply and demand return to healthy levels and product prices recover to reasonable ranges can corporate profitability fundamentally improve.
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