A recent industry report analyzes the performance of the metal sector for the week of January 23 to January 30, 2026, with the following performance across different commodities:
Copper: Strong Resilience in Copper Prices During the week (2026/1/23-2026/1/30), LME copper and SHFE copper settled at $133,370 and $103,680 per ton, respectively, up 3.5% and 2.3% week-on-week. The import copper concentrate TC for the week was -$50.0 per dry ton, down $0.5 per dry ton from the previous week, indicating continued tightness in spot copper ore supply as processing fees declined. According to Asian Metal Net, due to declining ore grades at major mines in Peru, Southern Copper Corporation anticipates a reduction in its copper output over the next two years. Projected production for 2026 is 911,400 tons, slightly above 900,000 tons in 2027, both below the 954,300 tons produced in 2025. Furthermore, copper prices demonstrated resilience under extreme stress tests; the sharp decline in precious metals did not lead to a significant adjustment in copper prices. SHFE copper prices largely held above the 100,000 yuan per ton level, suggesting continued strength.
Aluminum: Sector Resilience Likely to Persist LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum settled at $3,110 and $24,560 per ton for the week, down 2.0% and up 1.1% week-on-week, respectively. On the demand side, the comprehensive operating rate of SMM aluminum processing enterprises fell by 1.5 percentage points week-on-week to 59.4%. SHFE aluminum inventories recorded 217,000 tons (up 20,000 tons week-on-week). The seasonal decline in downstream operations is largely attributed to the Spring Festival effect. Amid an optimistic macroeconomic outlook, the sector is expected to maintain strong resilience.
Precious Metals: Rally Followed by Pullback, Watch for Opportunities After Stabilization SHFE gold and COMEX gold settled at 1,161.4 yuan per gram and $4,907.5 per ounce for the week, up 4.1% and down 1.5% week-on-week, respectively. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the next Fed Chair. Warsh, once seen as a supporter of free trade and a monetary policy hawk, has recently shifted to endorse tariff policies and calls for faster interest rate cuts. Warsh has publicly expressed a preference for lower interest rates while advocating for a comprehensive overhaul of the Federal Reserve, including reducing its balance sheet size and easing banking regulations. This stance differs from typical easing cycles, which often involve halting balance sheet reduction or even expanding it. Precious metals experienced a rally followed by a pullback; opportunities may arise after prices stabilize.
Minor Metals: Increased Volatility in Tungsten, Relatively Firm Rare Earth Prices For tungsten, tungsten concentrate prices settled at 601,000 yuan per ton for the week, up 12.3% week-on-week. Zhangyuan Tungsten increased its long-term contract prices for the second half of January, with 55% black tungsten concentrate, 55% white tungsten concentrate, and ammonium paratungstate rising by 63,000, 63,000, and 90,000 yuan per ton, respectively, from the previous round. Praseodymium neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide settled at 750,000 and 1.4 million yuan per ton for the week, up 11.3% and down 2.1% week-on-week, respectively. Parts of the "Decision on Implementing Export Controls on Relevant Overseas Rare Earth Items" announced by the Ministry of Commerce took effect on December 1, 2025, potentially boosting export demand for non-controlled items. For antimony, domestic antimony ingot prices settled at 165,000 yuan per ton for the week, up 1.2% week-on-week. The Ministry of Commerce announced the "Application Requirements and Procedures for State-Traded Enterprises Exporting Tungsten, Antimony, and Silver for 2026-2027," standardizing exports of antimony-related items. China exported 382 tons of antimony oxide in December, a 27% increase month-on-month.
Steel: Southern Mills Proactively Raise Prices, Focus on Profit Improvement in Construction Steel SHFE rebar and SHFE hot-rolled coil settled at 3,128 and 3,288 yuan per ton for the week, down 0.4% and 0.5% week-on-week, respectively. Supply of the five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons for the week, up 35,800 tons week-on-week. Total inventories recorded 12.7851 million tons, up 214,300 tons week-on-week. Weekly consumption was 8.0174 million tons, down 77,800 tons week-on-week. On the cost side, DCE iron ore and DCE coke settled at 792 and 1,722 yuan per ton for the week, down 0.4% and unchanged week-on-week, respectively. Recently, steel mills in Yunnan, Sichuan, Fujian, Jiangxi, and other regions have initiated adjustments to the price differentials for various specifications of construction steel, aiming to protect profit margins through pricing strategies. The adjustment pattern focuses on adding significant premiums for special specifications at the extremes, centered around benchmark specifications, while changes for mainstream mid-range specifications are relatively moderate. Enhanced self-discipline in the steel industry may lead to improved profitability.
Investment Recommendations Based on the sector performance, the report provides targeted investment suggestions: Copper Sector: Copper prices remain resilient. It is advisable to focus on companies with substantial copper resource reserves such as Zijin Mining Group, China Molybdenum Co., Ltd., and China Nonferrous Metal Mining, as well as JCHX Mining Management, which is driven by both mining services and resources. Precious Metals Sector: Precious metals rallied then pulled back. Watch for opportunities after prices stabilize. Focus on Zijin Mining International, Shandong Gold Mining, and China Gold International Resources. Aluminum Sector: Sector resilience is expected to continue. Consider Shenhuo Group, Yunnan Aluminium, Aluminum Corporation of China, and Nanshan Aluminum. Minor Metals Sector: Tungsten sector volatility has increased, while rare earth prices are relatively firm. Focus on rare earth enterprises like China Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and China Rare Earth Metals, domestic antimony producers such as Huayu Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and Hunan Gold, as well as tungsten companies including China Tungsten High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten. Steel Sector: Southern mills are proactively raising prices; monitor profit improvements in construction steel. Consider companies with excellent product structures like Baoshan Iron & Steel, Hunan Valin Steel, and Nanjing Iron & Steel, Baotou Steel benefiting from rising rare earth concentrate prices, and Shougang Group, which leads in environmental emission reduction capabilities.
Risk Warning The report also highlights related risks, including potential surprises in US tariff policies, weaker-than-expected downstream demand, a slower-than-anticipated Fed rate-cutting cycle, slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, and lower-than-expected growth in new energy vehicles.
Comments