ZTO Express-W (02057) rose more than 4%, reaching a 4% increase to HK$205.2 by the time of writing, with a trading volume of HK$167 million. In recent news, JPMorgan released a research report raising ZTO Express's target price from HK$197 to HK$225, maintaining an "Overweight" rating, and introducing forecasts for 2028, anticipating a compound annual growth rate of 13% in earnings per share during the forecast period. The bank indicated that anti-internal competition policies are reducing price wars, allowing ZTO to enhance efficiency, invest in technology, and raise industry entry barriers. ZTO's volume growth guidance for 2026 is set between 10% and 13%, surpassing the industry's projected 8%, benefiting from increased market share, a more rational pricing environment, and margin expansion. Guotai Haitong Securities noted that the strength and sustainability of the industry's "anti-internal competition" measures in 2026 are expected to exceed expectations, effectively alleviating competitive pressures and gradually lifting industry price levels, with profitability likely to recover steadily. Amid slowing industry growth due to factors such as high e-commerce operating costs and warm winters, continued optimism remains for leading courier companies that are optimizing business structures, building differentiated competitive advantages, and experiencing rapid growth in overseas operations.
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