Amid ongoing Middle East conflicts that continue to disrupt global energy supplies, worldwide crude oil inventories are being depleted at the fastest pace on record, sharply reducing market buffer capacity. According to a research report released by Goldman Sachs Group on May 20, the daily drawdown in global visible crude and refined product inventories since the start of May has reached 8.7 million barrels, setting a historical record and nearly doubling the average depletion rate since the conflict began. Analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven noted that the Strait of Hormuz is currently under a dual blockade by Iran and the United States, with transiting crude oil exports at only 5% of normal levels, indicating a "continued tightening of the physical market." Last week, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), also issued a warning, stating that commercial crude inventories are declining at an accelerating rate. The IEA estimates that even if the conflict ends soon, the global market will remain in a state of "significant supply shortage" until October. Brent crude futures traded around $105 per barrel on Thursday, having risen over 70% year-to-date, yet remain well below the wartime peak above $126 per barrel.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core driver of the accelerated inventory drawdown. Goldman Sachs analysts stated that approximately two-thirds of the May inventory decline stems from a reduction in "oil on water"—where export declines have significantly outpaced import contractions. This situation is fundamentally caused by the dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has driven transiting crude oil exports down to 5% of normal levels. Since March, the global inventory drawdown rate has reached 4.6 million barrels per day. However, due to substantial "buffer inventories" accumulated over the nine months prior to the conflict, overall inventory levels remain roughly in line with those of the same period last year. Goldman Sachs analysts believe this buffer is being rapidly depleted, and market vulnerability will become increasingly apparent over time. The demand side is also under pressure. The Goldman Sachs report points out that the trend of declining imports has "spread from Asia to Europe," with aviation fuel flows into Europe running 60% below the 2025 average.
U.S. inventories approach critical levels, maintaining pressure on elevated oil prices. In the United States, national crude oil inventories (including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) experienced a significant decline last week. Official data show that as record exports begin to erode domestic stocks, inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub continue to decrease, gradually approaching the so-called "tank bottoms" level. Goldman Sachs analysts also noted that the U.S. summer driving season is set to begin this weekend, which will provide "tailwind support" for gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel demand. Brent crude futures are currently around $106 per barrel, having accumulated gains of over 70% this year. However, they remain considerably below the wartime peak above $126 per barrel. Market uncertainty regarding the conflict's trajectory and supply recovery remains a key factor restraining further upward movement in oil prices.
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