GTHT has released a research report forecasting that INSILICO (03696) will achieve revenues of $189.47 million, $246.05 million, and $326.04 million for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 232%, 32%, and 33%. The firm believes that multiple molecules generated by the company's Pharma.AI platform have already led to a series of licensing agreements with pharmaceutical companies both domestically and internationally. Furthermore, MMAIGym is expected to propel the company's business model from AI drug discovery project-based collaborations towards a platform-based monetization model encompassing "model training infrastructure, data/model licensing, and cloud-based access."
Based on comparable companies, GTHT applies a 2026 price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 29 times, resulting in a target price of HKD 73.23 and an "Accumulate" rating. The key viewpoints from GTHT are as follows:
A Global Leader in AI-Driven Drug Discovery with End-to-End Coverage
INSILICO is a global pioneer in AI-powered drug discovery, leveraging its proprietary generative AI platform, Pharma.AI, to enable end-to-end drug development. This core platform primarily comprises modules like Biology42, Chemistry42, and Medicine42, covering target discovery, molecular generation, and clinical outcome prediction. Deeply integrated with its internal biology team, the platform reshapes the traditional new drug research and development paradigm.
Deep Integration of AI Enhances Early-Stage R&D Efficiency, Validated in Clinical Stages
The deep integration of AI technology has significantly improved early-stage R&D efficiency, with tangible validation now emerging in the clinical phase. Powered by its platform, the company has reduced the average time from project initiation to nomination of a preclinical candidate to 12-18 months and the number of molecules synthesized and tested to 60-200, far below traditional pathways. Its lead core pipeline, ISM001-055 (a TNIK inhibitor), has advanced to Phase IIa clinical trials, demonstrating good tolerability and initial improvement in lung function for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. This provides preliminary validation of the AI platform's capabilities in target discovery and efficient clinical progression.
A Commercial Closed Loop of "Platform Empowerment, Proprietary Pipeline, and External Partnerships" Enters the Value Realization Phase
The company has constructed a commercial closed loop of "platform empowerment, proprietary pipeline, and external partnerships," gradually entering a phase of value realization. On one hand, it continuously incubates innovative pipelines internally, building a diversified asset pool of over 20 programs in clinical or IND stages, creating a differentiated asset reserve with global potential. On the other hand, it achieves staged monetization through diversified collaborations and licensing mechanisms, converting R&D outcomes into cash flow and industrial resource support. This forms a "dual-engine" growth structure, with parallel monetization of self-developed assets and platform output.
Risk Factors
Risks include the potential for AI technology development to fall short of expectations, business development (BD) transaction completion rates not meeting forecasts, drug R&D progress being slower than anticipated, and changes in regulatory requirements.
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