Orient Securities has released a research report, stating that based on ANTA SPORTS's (02020) Q1 2026 operational data announcement and the latest performance guidance from Amer, it has slightly raised the company's profit forecasts for 2026-2027 and newly introduced a forecast for 2028. Earnings per share for 2026-2028 are now projected at RMB 5.03, RMB 5.52, and RMB 6.34, respectively (previous 2026-2027 forecasts were RMB 5.00 and RMB 5.48). With reference to comparable companies, a valuation of 17 times the 2026 price-to-earnings ratio is applied, corresponding to a target price of HK$98.34, and the "Buy" rating is maintained. The main points from Orient Securities are as follows:
Amer Sports continued its strong growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the company has raised its full-year 2026 guidance, which is expected to provide ANTA with higher equity earnings. Amer reported its Q1 2026 results, showing year-on-year revenue growth of 32% and adjusted net profit growth of 47%, demonstrating robust momentum. The company has raised its full-year 2026 operational guidance: expected revenue growth is adjusted upward to 20%-22%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share are raised to USD 1.18-1.23, implying full-year adjusted net profit growth between 27% and 32%. As the largest shareholder of Amer, ANTA is expected to achieve higher growth in equity earnings for 2026.
As a super-large sportswear group pursuing a multi-brand internationalization strategy, the company demonstrates greater resilience in a generally sluggish consumer environment. The company has long adhered to a multi-brand international development strategy. Orient Securities believes that against the backdrop of overall subdued consumption, the company will show higher resilience compared to its peers. Recent data also indicates that within its multi-brand portfolio, the mid-to-high-end outdoor brands are achieving higher growth rates, becoming the primary drivers of the company's sustained strong operational performance. The company's previously announced Q1 operational data shows: the main brand achieved high single-digit year-on-year retail growth (exceeding prior market expectations), while other brands (primarily the mid-to-high-end sportswear and outdoor brands Descente and Kolon) maintained rapid retail growth of 40%-45% in Q1. Amer's strong Q1 performance was also mainly contributed by its outdoor brands (revenue from outdoor functional apparel, led by the Arc'teryx brand, grew 33% year-on-year; revenue from mountain outdoor apparel and equipment, led by Salomon, grew 42% year-on-year). The differentiated multi-brand strategy plays a crucial supporting role in the stability of the company's overall operational growth.
The market is currently more focused on potential drags from the acquisition of Puma on the company's operations. Orient Securities believes excessive pessimism is unwarranted. The company announced in early 2026 its intention to acquire a 29.06% stake in Puma for EUR 1.5 billion. As Puma is currently in a restructuring phase, the market has significant concerns regarding the investment required post-acquisition and potential brand overlap after repositioning within the company's portfolio. Orient Securities believes such pessimism is excessive. Reviewing the company's multiple investment and operational cases, from FILA to Descente, Kolon, and then Amer, the firm has demonstrated strong integration capabilities in brand revitalization, team operations, and resource synergy, providing rich operational references for future new projects.
Risk warnings include: slow recovery in consumer demand, changes in sportswear industry trends, and intensifying competition.
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