Data collected over the past 24 hours indicates that the average terminal retail price for major Chinese baijiu products experienced a modest overall increase on April 5th. If one bottle of each major product were bundled together for sale, the total price today would be 9,968 yuan, a slight increase of 3 yuan compared to the previous day. The market saw more products appreciating than depreciating, though divergence persists, with the general price level edging higher.
Among the 11 major baijiu products tracked today, six increased in price, four decreased, and one remained unchanged. Leading the gains, Qinghua Lang rose by 6 yuan per bottle, marking its fourth consecutive day of increases and reaching a one-month high, driven by channel restocking. Junpin Xijiu increased by 3 yuan per bottle, achieving a third straight day of gains and returning to a recent high level. Qinghua Fen 20 and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ each appreciated by 2 yuan per bottle. Gujing Gongjiu Gu 20 and Wuliangye 1618 both saw modest increases of 1 yuan per bottle. On the downside, Wuliangye Pu Wu Eighth Generation led the declines, dropping by 6 yuan per bottle, a noticeable decrease attributed to lower trading volume. Feitian Moutai fell by 3 yuan per bottle, Premium Moutai decreased by 2 yuan per bottle, and Gujiao 1573 saw a slight decline of 1 yuan per bottle. The price of Crystal Jiannanchun remained unchanged from the previous day.
The daily pricing data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions nationwide. These points include, but are not limited to, distributors appointed by distilleries, independent distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw sample data consists of actual, transacted terminal retail prices from these points over the past 24 hours, aiming to provide objective, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of renowned baijiu products. Following the official launch of Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle on the iMoutai platform (which increased to 1,539 yuan per bottle early on the 31st) and the launch of Premium Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle on January 9th, the gravitational influence of this new sales channel on the average terminal retail prices of these two products is gradually becoming apparent. The daily published liquor prices adhere to a calculation rule that weights actual transaction volumes, and the quantifiable prices from this new channel have been incorporated into the terminal retail price calculations for these two products.
In other significant baijiu industry news, a research report from Zheshang Securities on the 4th suggested that under the advancement of Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.'s market-oriented reforms, factors such as direct sales volume expansion, product price recovery, and changes in consumer demographics will support its development. The report forecasts revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 183.521 billion yuan, 192.992 billion yuan, and 203.074 billion yuan, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 90.672 billion yuan, 95.408 billion yuan, and 100.454 billion yuan for those years, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 5% for both revenue and profit. The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are estimated at 72.41 yuan, 76.19 yuan, and 80.22 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20, 19, and 18 times. By referencing the valuation levels of comparable companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, and considering the company's brand advantage and reform factors, the report assigns a 2026 P/E ratio of 25 times. This corresponds to a target share price of 1,904.70 yuan, suggesting approximately 30% upside potential from the current price, and maintains a "Buy" rating.
Comments