On January 28th, 29th, and 30th, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai experienced three consecutive days of increases. On January 30th, according to information from a third-party platform, the latest price for 2026 Feitian (original case) reached 1,770 yuan per bottle, a significant jump of 160 yuan from the previous day. The latest price for a single 2026 Feitian bottle was 1,700 yuan, rising by 130 yuan, while the 2026 Feitian original case also saw an increase of 150 yuan. The Wind platform also indicated that on January 30th, the price for original-case Feitian Moutai climbed to 1,710 yuan per bottle, marking a 100-yuan increase from the day before. Notably, on January 29th, a rare scene unfolded in the A-share market's baijiu sector: stocks that had declined for five years almost all hit their daily limit-up, with the leading stock, Kweichow Moutai, soaring nearly 9%. However, the following day (January 30th), the baijiu sector experienced a collective correction, with Kweichow Moutai falling over 2%. CITIC Securities pointed out that since 2026, the industry has witnessed numerous significant events and changes, driving channel upgrades and breakthroughs in the baijiu sector. In the short term, leading baijiu companies have begun actively engaging with consumers, with consumer outreach and education efforts reaching unprecedented levels; mid-tier companies have appropriately reduced prices to maintain a balance between volume and price in the market; while tail-end companies have halted production and cleared inventory. Long-term, a channel synergy system centered on "the consumer" is expected to become the core competitive advantage in the industry's next cycle, requiring companies to gradually enhance their customer acquisition capabilities, service levels, and scene operation skills. Under this new round of market cultivation, the industry as a whole is poised to benefit from the effects of new consumer acquisition and enhanced consumer education. Moutai's wholesale price has been rising consecutively. The wholesale price of Moutai liquor has recently surged in successive jumps. Multiple third-party price platforms showed that on January 30th, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai increased by over 100 yuan per bottle in a single day. Data from one third-party platform indicated the latest price for 2026 Feitian (original case) was 1,770 yuan per bottle, up 160 yuan from the previous day. The latest price for a single 2026 Feitian bottle was 1,700 yuan, rising 130 yuan, and the 2025 Feitian original case also increased by 150 yuan. The Wind platform also showed that on January 30th, the price for original-case Feitian Moutai reached 1,710 yuan per bottle, a 100-yuan increase from the day before.
"The rise in Moutai's price may be related to a short-term increase in demand," stated a consumer sector analyst from a securities firm, adding that current market demand for Moutai remains relatively robust. Leading baijiu companies like Moutai have recently been frequently exerting effort in channel reforms and price reforms. Moutai's heavy bet on new channels like the "i Moutai" platform has also made the market aware of its determination. On January 9th, the 2026 National Moutai Distributors Association Meeting was held, where Chen Hua, Party Secretary and Chairman of Moutai Group, stated that the fundamental purpose of "i Moutai" is to address issues of reach and efficiency, and to understand the true boundaries of consumption. Operating under the three principles of preventing speculation, matching supply and demand, and stabilizing the market, "i Moutai" dynamically allocates products, allowing them to reach the consumer end directly, which helps establish a healthy channel ecosystem. In a recent research report, China Merchants Securities also noted that their team recently surveyed baijiu channels in multiple regions including Henan, Anhui, and Sichuan, finding that total demand is still declining (double-digit decline), but this aligns with previous expectations. Breaking down by scenario, business banquets are dominated by smaller gatherings, mid-to-high-end catering remains relatively sluggish, while gift-giving demand has seen some recovery. Brand differentiation is pronounced, with Moutai showing excellent sales performance and Spring Festival stocking demand being front-loaded, putting pressure on other brands. Analyzing the channels, Moutai's traditional channel shipment progress is at 25%, consistent with the same period last year, and there is basically no inventory in the channels currently; "i Moutai" is expected to contribute an incremental volume of over 1,500 tons in January, potentially leading to double-digit growth in total demand. Channel research also corroborates this conclusion, with Moutai's sales growth reaching double digits or even higher in many regions, far exceeding the previously pessimistic expectations of flat or declining growth. The capital market is reacting positively. Improved sales momentum for leading baijiu companies has elicited a positive response from the capital market. On January 29th, Kweichow Moutai's stock price surged over 8%, reclaiming the 1,400 yuan per share level. On January 30th, Moutai's stock price corrected but still closed at a recent high of 1,401 yuan per share. A latest research report from China Merchants Securities pointed out that Moutai's significant rise was catalyzed by events occurring when holdings were at low levels. Looking ahead, in the short term, tight supply and demand make wholesale prices prone to rise rather than fall; medium to long term, focus is on head-firm concentration and demand release. Baijiu sales are gradually picking up now. The first round of bottom-fishing is positioning for a Spring Festival rebound, anticipating about 20% upside potential. China Merchants Securities indicated that, short-term, the supply-demand dynamics for Moutai's wholesale price remain unchanged. Pre-holiday quotas are largely fulfilled, distributor inventories are low, supply is relatively tight, and demand-side support exists with year-on-year double-digit growth; prices may continue their upward trend, providing support for the stock price. From a long-term, cyclical perspective, the current phase is at the cycle bottom. Pressures from the economy and restrictions like alcohol bans are constraining demand, but the supply-demand balance has a solid foundation at the bottom. The removal of these constraints in the future could create upward momentum for prices, driving valuation and performance improvements. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities noted that recently, Kouzijiao, Shuijingfang, and Yanghe announced performance forecasts, further clearing pressure from financial statements; under current low expectations for the sector, there exists a opportunity for recovery. With favorable conditions such as RMB appreciation and a generally rising market, baijiu, as an important sub-sector of major consumption, highlights its allocation value. "The period leading up to the Spring Festival might be a phase of temporary pressure for baijiu. How baijiu demand performs during the peak Spring Festival season remains to be seen. It is expected that channel inventory, wholesale prices, and financial statement performance for liquor companies will lag behind demand improvement. During the period of performance decline, indicators such as channel inventory, wholesale prices, sales momentum, or performance improvements are likely to catalyze sector sentiment," Shenwan Hongyuan Securities stated. They added that at the current stock price level, sector sentiment might recover ahead of fundamental stabilization, recommending attention to structural opportunities and prioritizing baijiu investment targets based on channel clearance, operational improvements, scenario承接 (scenario承接 - likely meaning 'scenario adaptation/acceptance'), and dividend yield perspectives.
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