Zheshang Securities: Avoid Blind Panic Selling, Focus on Brokerages, and Await Rebound Potential

Deep News11-23

**Key Takeaways** Global equities, including A-shares, faced significant declines this week as expectations for a Fed rate cut this year diminished.

Looking ahead, with major indices just breaching their trendlines and global market volatility persisting, we anticipate short-term adjustments and gradual stabilization. Notably, after Q4's market "rebalancing," some broad-based indices have seen sufficient corrections, making blind stop-loss unnecessary at current levels. Over the longer term, we maintain that the systemic "slow bull" market remains intact, poised to enter a "second phase" post-adjustment.

**Investment Strategy** Given our outlook—short-term adjustments ongoing, certain indices nearing support, and the slow bull market enduring—we advise: - **Timing**: Avoid herd-driven panic selling. Hold positions and await stabilization, using the brokerage sector (now rebounding above annual support with high elasticity) as a signal for re-entry. - **Sector/Stock Allocation**: Differentiate holdings. Exit recently broken high-position stocks but retain undervalued sectors (e.g., brokerages, consumer, property, state-owned infrastructure) and lagging stocks above annual support.

**Weekly Market Recap (2025-11-17 to 2025-11-21)** 1. **Indices**: A-shares fell amid global volatility. 2. **Sectors**: Broad-based declines; banking and F&B showed resilience. 3. **Sentiment**: Lower Shanghai-Shenzhen turnover; futures discounts widened. 4. **Flows**: Margin balances dipped slightly; healthcare ETFs led inflows. 5. **Quantitative Metrics**: Valuations retreated.

**Catalysts** 1. China suspended Japanese seafood imports. 2. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met U.S. Ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns. 3. LPR rates held steady for the sixth consecutive month.

**Outlook** With the SSE Index breaking its uptrend, A-shares have shifted from a "dual-track" pattern (weighted gains vs. STAR/ChiNext volatility) to synchronized adjustments across indices. While near-term consolidation is likely, prolonged corrections in indices like the Hang Seng Tech (-55% from peaks, nearing annual support) and STAR 50 (-40% from highs) suggest limited downside. The slow bull market, supported by macro, policy, liquidity, and valuation factors, is expected to resume post-consolidation.

**Risks** - Slower-than-expected domestic recovery. - Geopolitical uncertainties.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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