Citi has released a new research report initiating coverage on MOMENTA-W (06880) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HK$508.2, applying a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method supplemented by cross-validation through DCF valuation.
Citi stated that thanks to the rapid penetration growth of L2++/L3 systems in China and the fast development of RoboX businesses such as L4 Robotaxi and Robovan, Momenta is expected to maintain a leading position in terms of market share.
On the financial front, Citi forecasts that from 2026 to 2028, Momenta's total revenue will grow year-on-year by 67%, 72%, and 96% respectively, reaching RMB 4.037 billion, RMB 6.962 billion, and RMB 13.618 billion; the RoboX business is expected to become the company's primary revenue source starting from 2028.
Citi believes that Momenta possesses three major growth drivers: First, the integrated software-hardware solution developed by Momenta in collaboration with XHEART is expected to seize a leading position amid the wave of domestic substitution for intelligent driving chips.
Second, the integrated software-hardware solution also enjoys a cost advantage over peers.
Third, driven by multiple favorable policies, the RoboX business is expected to help Momenta unlock revenue growth space and accelerate the rise of its second growth curve.
Specifically, as domestic manufacturers rise, the hardware market share of leading overseas manufacturers in China has declined from approximately 52% in 2025 to 33% in July 2026. It is expected that by 2030, Chinese chipmakers' hardware market share will reach 75%, which will benefit models equipped with the Momenta R7 world model; at the same time, the integrated software-hardware solution developed by Momenta in collaboration with XHEART is expected to help the company secure more orders from OEM manufacturers globally.
Citi highly recognizes Momenta's "one flywheel, two legs" strategy, its data-driven approach, and its mapless mode, and believes that this strategic choice supports Momenta's ability to rapidly launch in new cities and international markets, achieving efficient generalization across multiple regions and scenarios.
Over the next five years, the total addressable market (TAM) for autonomous ride-hailing in China alone will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 202% (2026-2030), reaching US$15 billion by 2030; it will then continue to grow at a CAGR of 35% (2030-2035), reaching US$68 billion by 2035.
Based on this, Citi expects that Momenta's RoboX businesses such as Robotaxi and Robovan are poised to become the two pillars of the company's revenue growth: Robotaxi revenue is projected to reach RMB 1.482 billion by 2028, while Robovan revenue is expected to grow from RMB 14 million in 2026 to RMB 2.868 billion in 2028. The growth of these two business segments jointly marks Momenta's strategic transition toward the commercialization of high-growth autonomous mobility services. It is expected that by 2030, RoboX business revenue could reach RMB 23.5 billion.
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