Risk-on sentiment has returned to financial markets after the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary halt in hostilities on Sunday, pushing oil prices sharply lower.
Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has climbed back above the $65,000 mark, trading roughly 1.2% higher over the past 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) has surged more than 3% to nearly $1,950, while other top-ten tokens like Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) have recorded gains ranging from 1% to 2%.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures opened Monday's session with a gap lower, dropping approximately 5% to around $85 a barrel at the time of writing. In contrast, futures tied to the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 rose by about 0.5%. The foreign exchange market also reflected a risk-on mood, with both the Australian dollar and the euro strengthening against the US dollar.
The US and Iran refrained from launching mutual military strikes for a second consecutive day, creating space for a potential diplomatic breakthrough. The conflict, which began in late February, entered a fragile ceasefire during the second quarter but quickly deteriorated.
Reports indicate that Iran has stated it will continue to suspend its own airstrikes as long as the US ceases its bombing campaign, marking a tentative beginning to what appears to be another peace process.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the India-based crypto exchange Giottus (registered with India's Financial Intelligence Unit), commented in an email: "Prices are also reacting to macro developments."
Brent crude declined 4.7% to $92.19 a barrel, easing some inflation worries. However, the Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for July 28-29 remains the primary near-term risk, with markets pricing in a 36.3% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike.
Subburaj added that Ethereum's more than 3% advance suggests some capital is rotating into alternative cryptocurrencies, though Bitcoin's market dominance stands at 58.6%, indicating this has not yet developed into a broad altcoin trend.
Meanwhile, other analysts continue to focus on Bitcoin's four-year cycle, suggesting the price may be forming a bottom in preparation for the next major bull run.
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of the analytics firm Alphractal, posted on X: "The time between each Bitcoin halving and the subsequent bear market bottom is approximately 900 days. The current cycle has reached day 827. Based on this pattern, we can say that Bitcoin is already building its price floor, with a potential final bottom potentially forming within the next two months."
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