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October 19: Gold Market Last Week
In the first half of last week, international gold was pressured lower as geopolitical tensions escalated, oil prices strengthened for consecutive sessions, and the unexpectedly strong U.S. September CPI data boosted rate hike expectations, weighing on the yellow metal. Afterward, bargain hunting emerged, several Federal Reserve officials said they were in no rush to raise rates, the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields rebounded and peaked before pulling back, and Fed Chair Warsh refused to reveal any policy meeting clues, pushing the probability of an October rate hike below 15%. This supported gold in bottoming out and rebounding, once again forming a hammer-line pattern, and it remains above the upward trend channel that began in 2024. It could also mirror the similar行情 seen from April to August 2025, namely continuing to consolidate along this trendline before rebounding and climbing afterward.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the week at $4,193.69 per ounce, first recording the weekly high of $4,216.99, then encountered resistance and pulled back, plunging on Wednesday to touch the weekly low of $4,073.58. It then bottomed out and rebounded, recovering losses on Thursday, fluctuated on Friday, and finally closed at $4,168.11. The weekly range was $143.41, with a decline of $25.58, or 0.61%.
Looking ahead to this Monday (October 19): International gold opened with a gap lower but then strengthened, quickly recovering the loss and turning higher. Although last week's stronger-than-expected September inflation data led the market to bet on nearly a 90% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, and weekend试探 after a breather weighed on gold at the open, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days remains valid. Trump's cancellation of sanctions on Russia and other factors caused oil prices to pull back, while easing rate hike pressure also provided support. This helped gold turn stronger after opening lower. Therefore, with the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields expected to peak after their short-term rebound, and with geopolitical tensions easing somewhat and the oil market crisis abating, gold is likely to remain in a strong state during the day, while the short- to medium-term outlook remains mainly range-bound or rebounding.
On the fundamental side, although the U.S. relaxed sanctions on Russian diesel trade and Russia lifted part of its diesel export ban, the G7 coordinated the release of 100 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, and the International Energy Agency agreed to release over 20 million barrels of diesel reserves. Also, Iran's weekend proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days remains valid. However, major differences persist between the two sides, and negotiations have not achieved a decisive breakthrough. The U.S.-Iran stalemate continues, and the Yemen-Saudi conflict is escalating. Risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain, oil shipping volumes are about 38% below pre-war levels, and increasing tanker attacks continue to disrupt shipping. This will keep oil prices running at elevated levels, making it difficult for inflation to decline, keeping Fed rate hike expectations alive, and limiting gold's upside.
However, from a longer-term perspective, on the demand side, the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that China's central bank increased its gold reserves by 23 tonnes last month; national gold ETFs saw continued inflows in September, and recent various festivals and holidays have boosted demand for gold jewelry, bars, and coins. Looking back at history, every decline in gold prices has been accumulating opportunities for the next allocation window. If inflation ultimately proves harder to control than the Fed expects, or if geopolitical conflicts further expand and raise systemic risks, gold's value as the ultimate safe-haven asset may once again come to the fore.
Additionally, looking back at the three historical oil crises, all eventually ended with oil prices spiking and then falling, the crises gradually subsiding, and all led Western economies into recession. Although the Fed was ultimately forced to raise rates, this clearly did not cause a sustained decline in gold prices, and ultimately a bull market was ushered in again. Also, looking back at the aggressive rate hikes from 2022 to 2023, gold prices did not experience an obvious crash, remaining within a certain range and then strengthening and climbing again afterward. Therefore, the current Fed rate hikes have not pressured gold into a sustained downtrend and are not as strong as previous hiking cycles. So, for future gold prices, the most likely scenario is to maintain sideways consolidation, continue to absorb bearish pressure, and then strengthen again to climb to new historical highs.
For short-term or intraday/weekly international gold traders, there is no need to focus on the fundamental outlook and direction. Long-term holders of accumulated gold or physical gold can stagger their positioning at current lows or after further pullbacks, waiting for new historical highs to appear again.
Technically, on the monthly chart: gold encountered resistance and pulled back in September, closing below the 5-10 month moving averages, failing to extend the August rebound momentum for further gains. The secondary indicators also maintain bearish signals, with bears holding the advantage. However, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the price is running above the middle band, suggesting a bias toward range consolidation before climbing again. Therefore, the current middle band support, or further support at the 30-month moving average, are entry points for both the current adjustment and the future bullish climb.
On the weekly chart: gold has halted its decline and rebounded for two consecutive weeks near the support of the upward trend channel that began in 2024, similar to the price action from April to August 2025. Therefore, while the price continues to consolidate above this support, one can still look forward to a climb after the adjustment. However, resistance above is strong, so while being bullish on a rebound, one must also carefully manage the space. Watch for pullback risk near $4,300 or $4,400. If it pulls back again and breaks below the upward trendline support, then the medium- to long-term bullish view can look to the $3,900-$3,700 area within the channel support before expecting new highs.
On the daily chart: gold opened lower and strengthened, filling the gap, but the rebound still encountered resistance from the recent adjustment range's high, keeping gold within a consolidation range. However, the secondary indicators lean bullish, and the overall price remains above the upward trendline, suggesting that a bullish climb after adjustment is still expected. In terms of operations, there are opportunities for both longs and shorts intraday, with the short- to medium-term direction biased upward.
The following are preliminary intraday support and resistance levels for reference; actual entry and exit points are subject to live notifications: Gold: watch support near $4,150 or $4,130; watch resistance near $4,195 or $4,215. Silver: watch support near $56.80 or $56.35; watch resistance near $58.00 or $58.50.
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