If Not The Bottom, Then What?

Seeking Alpha2022-09-26

SummaryLeading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future.With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-...

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Comments

Titis
2022-09-27
Titis
Nearly
runningjames
2022-09-27
runningjames
Buy buy
LeeWan
2022-09-27
LeeWan
K
th0mastan
2022-09-27
th0mastan
Many have been flocking to fixed deposit asthe headlines are drawing the attention with "highest interest rate since XXXX". This will just benefit the banks as those who are Davyto deploy the cash to good use.
- IAS:
  [OK]
andrew123
2022-09-27
andrew123
Like
- LeeWan:
  K
CL777
2022-09-27
CL777
Now

Leave a comment

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However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns.CaveatWe admit we don’t know what the future holds for us. I am falling back on my instinct to view things as bets with their own uncertain odds.Investment Markets Decline on September 23rdLeading central bank interest rates, sertt by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future. (My guess is that they won’t be successful at current levels until they switch from attempting to reduce demand to increasing supply, which is more difficult.) With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. However, it’s insufficient if demand curtailment works and drives up defaults.The battle against industrial goods inflation may be close to won, with the year-over-year change in the JOC-ECRI industrial price at -9.69%, gasoline demand down almost -8%, and distillates down about -16%. (I think it is going to be more difficult to address inflation in services, which is mostly comprised of wages for talented people.) Furthermore, food prices are much more dependent on the global decline in land use and availability.As usual, the high-quality fixed-income markets are more advanced than the equity markets.Did Friday’s stock market decline signal a bottom? Possibly, but it did not completely fit historical patterns. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average established a new low for the year, the S&P 500 was the third-lowest, and the Nasdaq the fifth-lowest. Considering the latter two indices had greater gains, the fall of the DJIA is less impressive. While there was an increase in transaction volume from a low base, it was not impressive. There are no signs of mass capitulation at public or institutional levels.OutlookThere are four possible paths forward. In order of time, magnitude and pain, they are:A bear market without a recession has happened a few times and is largely a price correction. We are closing in on that.A cyclical recession is usually driven by commodity prices or other supply issues. This is satisfactorily addressed in a few years.A structural recession due to systemic imbalances of power and leadership requires major changes, which drastically alter society. Depending on the level of violence, it can take many years.Stagflation, where a portion of the society/economy sacrifices involuntarily to the other until there is a counter-revolutionary force. There is usually a period of mismanagement and legal turmoil. We have experienced two periods like this in the past beginning in the 1930s and 1970s.Each alternative is possible. Prudent investors should make up their own minds as to what is probable for their beneficiaries and careers. (To be discussed later.)Before choosing your expected future, there is a new threat and lesson which surfaced this week.London’s Future Lesson and ThreatThis week, the brand-new Prime Minister announced a very expensive plan of pump-priming and tax reduction for individuals. The reaction of the London investment market and currency was shock and fear. The former US Secretary of Treasury and former President of Harvard summed up the view of many on both sides of the Atlantic that these were “the worst possible policies”.There are two lessons for the US from these policies which march down the same road as the current US administration.The lesson for US and other investors is that the value of one’s currency shapes the willingness of foreigners to invest in the currency. The independent Bank of England, their central bank, raised interest rates by 100 basis points earlier in the week before this announcement. On Friday, there was a call for the BOE to immediately raise rates another 100 basis points.This controversy is important for the US with its highly rated currency, which somewhat ironically had the second-biggest gain for the week, according to The Wall Street Journal. (The only currency that had a bigger gain was the Russian ruble, +4.54% vs.+2.57%.)Investors, traders, and customers look at the currency behind the source of earnings in today’s currency markets. We are all familiar with the “Petrodollar”, which is based on the earnings derived from petroleum production and sale. To some degree, the tag of Petrodollar has also been placed on the currencies of Russia and Canada, among others, in addition to various Middle Eastern countries.While it hasn’t been popularly done before, I believe we may now see a financial pound label placed on the British currency. A major part of its earnings come from its transaction markets and multinationals headquartered in the UK with export earnings, as well as contributions from my wife at her favorite shopping location.We should watch what happens in the UK as an indication of a possible trend for the US.Investing Equity ReservesLast week’s blog suggested a tactical plan to reinvest reserves coming from equity investments, or from cash flows to be invested in equities.Investors will be benefit from dollar-cost averaging, no matter which frequency is used. They will also benefit from the selection of one of the four alternative futures outlined above.The most important long-term decision regarding the ultimate value of the account is to not get too comfortable with cash reserves while interest rates earn single-digit returns. This will be costly, as stock markets go up as rates come down, resulting in some principal loss. More important, time not invested in equities at low prices will be lost. For taxable investors, the difference in taxes on interest and gains can be meaningful, particularly in well-constructed estates.In making choices where time horizon is appropriate for your investments, I expect the last two scenarios to be the most likely, based on today’s information. For example, Walmart (WMT) is not building inventory and staff for the holiday season. Their shoppers, for the most part, are modest-income, savvy buyers. If Walmart is not expecting a good holiday season for itself, one should question how quickly inflation will drop below 5%.Typically, a well-known name disappears from the marketplace due to severe financial trouble. None has so far, but you might see a rescue merger or court action.I have no inside information, but I am concerned that reported earnings and, more importantly, values are overstated for the current economy, making market valuations questionable. One such possible company is Credit Suisse (CS). The pundits are quoting it as selling for almost 20% of book value! I am sure this is not a singular situation.Please share your views.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9911485264,"gmtCreate":1664244063958,"gmtModify":1676537417273,"author":{"id":"4097390762131420","authorId":"4097390762131420","name":"Titis","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4097390762131420","authorIdStr":"4097390762131420"},"htmlText":"Nearly&nbsp;","listText":"Nearly&nbsp;","text":"Nearly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911485264","repostId":1154262778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9911497404,"gmtCreate":1664241077309,"gmtModify":1676537416184,"author":{"id":"4117336023184202","authorId":"4117336023184202","name":"runningjames","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3467c93ce8ec8c583f28f405e68f0c00","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4117336023184202","authorIdStr":"4117336023184202"},"htmlText":"Buy buy","listText":"Buy buy","text":"Buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911497404","repostId":1154262778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9911403629,"gmtCreate":1664239463561,"gmtModify":1676537415616,"author":{"id":"3558097748623340","authorId":"3558097748623340","name":"LeeWan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88769849d29a340fce73355c249755a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558097748623340","authorIdStr":"3558097748623340"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911403629","repostId":1154262778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9911550209,"gmtCreate":1664237209501,"gmtModify":1676537414657,"author":{"id":"3573383537150312","authorId":"3573383537150312","name":"th0mastan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84d76bcdad50787fa2929139725c46f0","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573383537150312","authorIdStr":"3573383537150312"},"htmlText":"Many have been flocking to fixed deposit asthe headlines are drawing the attention with \"highest interest rate since XXXX\". This will just benefit the banks as those who are Davyto deploy the cash to good use.&nbsp;","listText":"Many have been flocking to fixed deposit asthe headlines are drawing the attention with \"highest interest rate since XXXX\". This will just benefit the banks as those who are Davyto deploy the cash to good use.&nbsp;","text":"Many have been flocking to fixed deposit asthe headlines are drawing the attention with \"highest interest rate since XXXX\". This will just benefit the banks as those who are Davyto deploy the cash to good use.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911550209","repostId":1154262778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104106392,"gmtCreate":1664241173697,"gmtModify":1664241177402,"authorId":3576136694569207,"author":{"id":3576136694569207,"idStr":"3576136694569207","authorId":3576136694569207,"name":"IAS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933fbcc1d9c75b4ff82486f8a48a3e7c","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9911550209,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[OK]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[OK]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[OK]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9911564296,"gmtCreate":1664236478816,"gmtModify":1676537414332,"author":{"id":"3576260758860416","authorId":"3576260758860416","name":"andrew123","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2a1eaba26272212d42018e60e78b422","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576260758860416","authorIdStr":"3576260758860416"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911564296","repostId":1154262778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104105878,"gmtCreate":1664239471589,"gmtModify":1664239475300,"authorId":3558097748623340,"author":{"id":3558097748623340,"idStr":"3558097748623340","authorId":3558097748623340,"name":"LeeWan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88769849d29a340fce73355c249755a4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9911564296,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">K</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">K</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">K</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9911582384,"gmtCreate":1664235925748,"gmtModify":1676537413984,"author":{"id":"3560241002253187","authorId":"3560241002253187","name":"CL777","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aef3dd830373a0427a3447b1b564e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560241002253187","authorIdStr":"3560241002253187"},"htmlText":"Now","listText":"Now","text":"Now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911582384","repostId":1154262778,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":760,"commentSize":47,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1154262778"}