Bank of Communications International has released a research report maintaining a Buy rating on MINISO Group Holding Limited (09896). Due to structural impacts on profit margins from changes in business segment contributions, the firm has lowered its profit forecasts for 2026-2027 by 7-10%. Still applying a 2026 forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16x, the target price has been correspondingly reduced to HK$45.50, down from the previous HK$48.70.
Full-year results met expectations, with steady growth in both domestic and overseas operations. In 2025, the company's revenue increased by 26.2% year-over-year to RMB 214.4 billion, while full-year adjusted operating profit rose 7.9% to RMB 36.7 billion, aligning with prior company guidance. Adjusted net profit grew 6.5% year-over-year to RMB 29.0 billion. The company continues to deepen its globalization strategy, IP collaborations, and large-store format initiatives, enhancing growth quality and brand momentum. Guidance for 2026 indicates high double-digit revenue growth for the group, with adjusted operating profit and net profit expected to accelerate compared to 2025.
In mainland China, business showed steady growth, driven by store upgrades and product innovation. Revenue from MINISO's mainland China operations increased 16.8% year-over-year in 2025, with same-store sales improving quarter by quarter, culminating in mid-single-digit growth for the full year. The net addition of 182 stores brought the total in mainland China to 4,568, with new formats such as MINISOLAND strengthening the momentum of channel upgrades. In terms of IP, the company has a pipeline of 30-40 proprietary IPs and aims to increase their sales contribution through upgraded store visuals and immersive experiences. The synergy between the large-store strategy and IP portfolio has effectively boosted both customer traffic and average transaction value. Looking ahead to 2026, the company will continue to advance store upgrades, with further year-over-year improvement in same-store sales expected.
Overseas expansion remains a priority, with directly operated markets performing strongly. Overseas revenue grew 29.3% year-over-year in 2025, while same-store sales saw a low single-digit decline. A net increase of 465 stores brought the overseas total to 3,583, including a net addition of 197 directly operated stores, raising the direct-operated store count to 700. Revenue in the North American market surged 68% year-over-year, with same-store sales rising by mid-single digits for the full year. Following optimizations in store operations, cost controls, and localized product strategies, there is believed to be further room for margin improvement in U.S. directly operated stores. For 2026, trends in the U.S. market for January-February have been positive. The company plans to optimize its SKU structure, focusing on high-turnover, high-margin products, which should lead to year-over-year improvement in operating margins. In Southeast Asia, efforts will concentrate on Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, replicating the successful Chinese theme park store model to drive same-store sales improvement.
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