Recent international gold prices have shown overall weakness, with the market exhibiting a fluctuating pattern of resistance above and support below amid the interplay of multiple factors.
On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. Senate has approved Waller as Federal Reserve Chair, and the market is highly attentive to his first official remarks. He maintains the stance that "inflation is a monetary phenomenon" and is cautious about interest rate cuts. Against the backdrop of the U.S. April CPI year-on-year increase exceeding expectations and persistently strong inflation stickiness, the inflation and interest rate cut issues Waller faces after taking office will undoubtedly be subject to significant tests. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been further delayed. In theory, a high-interest-rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, constraining upward price movements.
Geopolitically, U.S.-Iran negotiations remain in a serious deadlock. Iran has clearly set preconditions, including ending hostilities, lifting sanctions, and recognizing Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, the U.S. and Iran cannot enter a new phase of negotiations. The Strait of Hormuz navigation issue remains a key market focus. As one of the world's most important energy transportation channels, any change in the situation could trigger fluctuations in market risk-aversion sentiment.
Overall, the tense U.S.-Iran negotiations, Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, and the ongoing heat in the U.S. stock market make it difficult for gold to establish a clear trend in the short term. Gold prices may continue to exhibit a pattern of support below and resistance above, with the market trading time for space, waiting for bearish factors to be fully priced in. Strategically, maintaining a view of allocating to gold on dips is advisable, but short-term caution is warranted regarding dual disturbances from macro-policy and geopolitical fronts. Investors are advised to control position sizes and wait for clearer directional signals.
Risk Warning: The gold market is influenced by multiple factors including international macro policies, geopolitics, and the U.S. dollar trend, resulting in significant uncertainty. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute specific operational advice. Investors should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance. Futures trading carries risks; caution is advised.
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