美联储：经济比想象中的热，利率需加到更高才能降通胀

华尔街见闻2022-10-19

美联储工作人员们近日“大幅下调”了对美国潜在产出的评估。分析称，更低的潜在增长意味着去年和今年的经济过热程度超过了此前预期，这需要更多的加息或是更长时期低于趋势的增长，才能缩小产出缺口。美联储内部有影响力的工作人员们认为，美国经济比他们想象的还要热，这有助于解释为什么通胀仍处于40年来的高位，这也为美联储进行更多加息提供了理由。由于生产率增长令人失望，以及劳动力参与率增加缓慢，美联储工作人员们近日...

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微云君
2022-10-19
微云君
暗藏玄只因[喲喲]
老八公
2022-10-19
老八公
OK
- 老八公:
  👌
赞我的今年账户翻十倍
2022-10-19
赞我的今年账户翻十倍
快跑
yoyo6969
2022-10-19
yoyo6969
[微笑]
- yoyo6969:
  [微笑]

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Wong点评称，这对政策的影响是重要的。更低的潜在增长意味着去年和今年的经济过热程度超过了此前预期，这需要更多的加息或是更长时期低于趋势的增长，才能缩小产出缺口。虽然给出上述结论的美联储工作人员们不制定政策，但相关结论提供了非常重要的信息，可能会影响美联储决策者们的行动。目前，市场普遍预计美联储在11月的会议上再次加息75个基点，为连续第四次如此大规模加息。对于12月继续加息75基点，市场也没排除这一可能。美国经济今年以来显著放缓，但如果经济水平仍高于其长期趋势，这也就解释了为什么通胀继续在多个领域广泛地增长且顽固不下。美国劳工统计局上周公布的数据显示，美国9月CPI同比上涨8.2%，高于市场预期的8.1%，前值8.3%；9月CPI环比上涨0.4%，是市场预期0.2%的两倍，并大幅高于前值0.1%。9月核心CPI同比上涨6.6%，不仅高于市场预期的6.5%以及前值的6.3%，而且再创1982年8月以来的新高；核心CPI环比连续第二个月攀升0.6%，高于市场预期的0.4%。美国9月就业数据也颇为强劲，9月非农新增26.3万人，预期25.5万人；失业率仅3.5%，处于50年来的最低水平；平均时薪稳步上升，9月平均每小时工资同比增5%。此前曾担任过美联储货币事务部负责人、现任耶鲁大学管理学院教授William English表示，美国经济似乎相当有弹性，劳动力市场可能需要大幅放缓，以减轻需求和工资的压力。预计未来的联邦基金利率会比美联储最新估计的要高，失业率也会更高，而通货膨胀的下降速度比现任官员们预期的要慢。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":662387002,"gmtCreate":1666194486608,"gmtModify":1676537721131,"author":{"id":"3578475701888174","authorId":"3578475701888174","name":"微云君","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578475701888174","authorIdStr":"3578475701888174"},"htmlText":"暗藏玄只因[喲喲]&nbsp;","listText":"暗藏玄只因[喲喲]&nbsp;","text":"暗藏玄只因[喲喲]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/662387002","repostId":1154291513,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9983800524,"gmtCreate":1666194361368,"gmtModify":1676537721077,"author":{"id":"4087300025751020","authorId":"4087300025751020","name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorIdStr":"4087300025751020"},"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983800524","repostId":1154291513,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104418531,"gmtCreate":1666194367773,"gmtModify":1666194371821,"authorId":4087300025751020,"author":{"id":4087300025751020,"idStr":"4087300025751020","authorId":4087300025751020,"name":"老八公","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27256ede8324832365cde987fa4cf48","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9983800524,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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