The market is experiencing a period of consolidation. For the new apple crop, most production regions are in the later stages of bagging, with strong yield expectations capping upside potential for futures.
This week, the movement of stored apples showed a pattern of faster sales in the east and slower in the west. The quality of the remaining cold storage inventory is declining, with farmers in western regions clearing out their stocks. Trading of remaining merchant-held supplies is limited. In Shandong, farmers and holders of average and lower quality fruit are generally selling at prevailing market prices, with e-commerce channels primarily sourcing low-priced farmer supplies. High-quality fruit prices are generally stable to slightly firm, but overall transaction volume is moderate. Preparations for the Dragon Boat Festival have concluded, and the market is entering the summer consumption lull, compounded by ongoing competition from seasonal fresh fruits. The focus for next week will be on the sustainability of destocking rates for stored fruit and reports on the new crop's bagging quantities.
Price Performance: Neutral
Current spot prices: Qixia first and second grade 80# paper bag apples at 3.2 yuan/jin, Luochuan semi-premium 70# at 3.75 yuan/jin. Futures prices are trending weakly with volatility.
Supply: Slightly Bearish
China's 2025 apple production is estimated at 34.3132 million tons (year-on-year -6.0%), with a planted area of 1,744.84 thousand hectares. Expectations for a strong new crop yield are creating supply-side pressure on the futures market.
Demand: Neutral
Nationwide cold storage apple inventories stand at 1.1916 million tons, with the weekly destocking rate showing a slight slowdown compared to last week. The price gap between apples and competing fruits remains high, sustaining substitution pressure. Market prices are currently mixed.
Cost: Slightly Bullish
Transaction prices for high-quality new-crop fruit remain elevated, keeping costs persistently high.
Export: Neutral
China's apple imports for April 2026 were 22,944.856 tons, with exports at 83,019.12 tons. Exports to traditional markets like Southeast Asia and Russia remain stable.
Market Price Activity
In Shandong, average and lower quality supplies continue to be sold at market prices, with a decent destocking pace. For the new crop, bagging in the Yantai region is in its late stages. Some townships report uneven fruit set, but overall conditions are acceptable, with Shandong's total bagging volume slightly higher than last year. Current prices: In Penglai, mainstream quotes for farmer-held first and second grade 75# fruit are around 1.8-3.0 yuan/jin, 80# first and second grade at 2.6-3.8 yuan/jin, with virtually no transactions for third-grade fruit. In Qixia, late Fuji 80# first and second grade full-red fruit is priced at 2.5-3.8 yuan/jin, with farmer-held mixed-grade 80# at 1.3-2.0 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, the destocking pace is moderate, quality is inconsistent, and prices are determined by quality, with a focus on active disposal. For the new crop, bagging is also in late stages, with some unevenness in parts of the region, but overall fruit set is higher than the same period last year. In Luochuan, transaction prices for cold-stored, farmer-held mixed-grade fruit 70# and above are in the range of 2.0-3.0 yuan/jin, with a mainstream price of 2.4-2.6 yuan/jin. Lower-grade fruit is around 1.2-1.6 yuan/jin. Mainstream transactions for merchant-held semi-premium fruit 70# and above are around 3.5-4.0 yuan/jin, and for 80# and above semi-premium around 4.5-4.8 yuan/jin, mostly priced according to quality.
On June 18th, the main AP futures contract settled at 7,618 yuan/ton. The spot-futures basis for the October contract was -1,118 yuan/ton (strengthening by 60 yuan/ton compared to last week).
Supply Analysis: Yield and Cold Storage Stocks
Cold storage inventories continue to decline. As of the week ending June 19th, national cold storage apple stocks stood at 1.1916 million tons (a decrease of 184.5 thousand tons from the previous week), with Shandong holding 662.2 thousand tons and Shaanxi 233.5 thousand tons. The weekly destocking rate showed a slight slowdown.
For 2025, China's apple planted area is reported at 1,744.84 thousand hectares, with production at 34.3132 million tons (down 6.0% year-on-year).
Demand Analysis: Cold Storage Shipments and Substitute Competition
For the week ending June 19th, national cold storage apple shipments were 184.4 thousand tons. Cumulative shipments for the 2025/26 season reached 6.474 million tons (compared to 7.4812 million tons in the same period last year). Shipments from Shandong and Shaanxi totaled 121.7 thousand tons.
Arrivals at key southern China markets for the week of June 19th were: Chalong market 33.25 truckloads (previous week 23.6), Jiangmen market 16 truckloads (previous week 10.6), and Xiaqiao market 21.5 truckloads (previous week 14.2). Market prices are currently mixed. While truck arrivals have increased noticeably, the number of merchants is not high, with some russeted fruit being sold at low prices. The gradual launch of seasonal fruits and continued noticeable inventory buildup at intermediate warehouses are factors. Downstream secondary and tertiary wholesalers show moderate purchasing enthusiasm.
Wholesale price monitoring for six major fruits for the week of June 19th shows: Kyoho grapes at 15.7 yuan/KG (week-on-week -2.1%), Fuji apples at 9.17 yuan/KG (week-on-week +0.9%), bananas at 5.59 yuan/KG (week-on-week -0.5%), Ya pears at 5.42 yuan/KG (week-on-week +1.3%), watermelon at 3.57 yuan/KG (week-on-week -2.7%), and pineapple at 5.78 yuan/KG (week-on-week +1.2%).
For the week of June 19th, the apple-to-banana price ratio was 1.64 (1.62 last week), and the apple-to-Ya pear ratio was 1.69 (1.70 last week).
Import and Export Activity
In May 2026, China imported 30,929 tons of apples and exported 57,443.5 tons. The primary export variety is Red Fuji, with traditional export markets including Southeast Asia, Russia, South Asia, and some European countries.
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