According to analysis published on July 11th, the exceptionally strong consumer stimulus policies of the previous year have given way to a significant contraction in policy support in 2026, with a sharp decline in support for entry-level consumption. This has led to a continuous year-on-year decline in passenger vehicle retail sales from January to June this year, with fuel-powered passenger vehicles experiencing a particularly sharp drop. However, due to increased exports, the growth rate of manufacturer sales in June remained relatively stable. The performance of new energy vehicles in June was not strong, while the automotive export market continued its robust performance. Manufacturer inventories saw a slight contraction, and there was no widespread phenomenon of inventory overstocking within the industry.
Overall Market Stability in 2026
Total vehicle sales for June 2026 reached 2.79 million units, representing a 3% year-on-year decrease. Cumulative vehicle sales for the first half of 2026 (January-June) totaled 14.98 million units, a cumulative decline of 4%. The truck and bus markets performed relatively strongly in 2026, while the passenger vehicle market was slightly weaker. Coupled with strong exports and weak domestic demand, the overall sales trend for manufacturers remained relatively stable. The performance of automotive groups in 2026 varied significantly, with companies like SAIC Motor Corporation Limited (SHA: 600104) recovering rapidly and regaining a leading position. BYD Company Limited (HKG: 01211) maintained a generally strong performance trend.
Share of Exports in Total Sales
China's automotive exports have experienced explosive growth in recent years. In June 2026, exports accounted for 37% of total sales, a substantial increase from 21% in 2025, making exports a crucial component supporting the growth of China's automotive industry scale.
Significant Divergence Among Major Automaker Groups
Comparing with the 2021 chart, the performance of some automakers was strong in 2022, leading to a severe divergence in industry growth rates. The pandemic in early 2022 put significant pressure on traditional automakers, especially with the combined impact of the new energy vehicle transition and the pandemic. The performance of large state-owned groups diverged, with GAC Group and Chery performing excellently; Chery performed well in both commercial and passenger vehicle segments. Northern groups like FAW Group, Great Wall Motor, and BAIC Group all faced pressure. The push from new energy vehicles in early 2023 further differentiated market trends. The performance of the three major central state-owned enterprises diverged overall, with some state-owned enterprises falling behind. New energy vehicle companies like BYD Company Limited performed very well; Chery and Tesla also showed relatively strong performance this year. The performance of second-tier automakers diverged, with independent small and medium-sized brands experiencing severe downturns due to the transition between old and new growth drivers and the sustained loss pressure from new energy vehicles. The lineup and landscape of automotive groups changed comprehensively in 2024. BYD Company Limited reduced prices on new models to boost volume, and due to strong passenger vehicle sales demand and overseas contributions, Chery, Geely, and Dongfeng performed very well, while SAIC Motor continued to experience a sharp decline. The growth rates of new energy vehicle leaders BYD Company Limited and Tesla diverged. The manufacturer landscape of the automotive market underwent major changes, with the industry showing a sharp divergence in growth rates. Starting in 2025, private enterprises replaced state-owned enterprises as the main industry drivers, with Geely, BYD Company Limited, Chery, and Great Wall Motor maintaining relatively high growth rates. In 2026, leading sales became a key focus for various state-owned enterprises. Despite a severe and sluggish market, SAIC Motor, Geely, Chery, and BAIC Group showed relatively strong performance from January to June, with improved growth rates. Great Wall Motor and Tesla performed excellently overall. The manufacturer landscape in 2026 was relatively stable, with a significant rise in the status of independent brands. Manufacturer sales in June were generally good, but sluggish retail market performance dragged down passenger vehicle manufacturers. Some manufacturers, including BYD Company Limited, showed a very strong sequential trend compared to May. SAIC Motor's passenger vehicle unit showed year-on-year strength, while some manufacturers like BYD Company Limited posted very good June sales. Others, like Changan Automobile Co., Ltd. (SHE: 000625), still underwent significant year-on-year adjustments.
Production and Sales Trends for Passenger Vehicle Enterprises (Narrow Definition)
Total sales of passenger vehicles (narrow definition) in June 2026 were 2.36 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. Cumulative sales for the first half of 2026 were 12.55 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. In recent years, technological innovation and the competitiveness of new models in the new energy vehicle sector have continuously increased, while the launch of new fuel-powered models has been weak. The new energy vehicle sector was in an adjustment period at the beginning of 2026, with dealers lacking confidence and high oil prices suppressing growth rates. Independent passenger vehicle manufacturers led comprehensively in 2026. Major manufacturers were generally weak in June, with independent brands being exceptionally strong. Due to high oil prices, joint venture automakers performed weakly in June. BYD Company Limited led, Chery Automobile ranked second, and Geely Automobile maintained its position in the top three in June, with the scale of the top three becoming increasingly close. Joint ventures like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen performed relatively sluggishly. The camp of major passenger vehicle manufacturers is rapidly diverging. Enterprises focused on exports and those focused on new energy vehicles performed strongly. The performance divergence among joint ventures is particularly evident, with Toyota performing strongly.
Production and Sales Trends for New Energy Passenger Vehicle Enterprises
Total manufacturer sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June 2026 were 1.48 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Cumulative sales for the first half of 2026 were 6.79 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5%. At the beginning of 2026, pressure from scrappage renewal subsidies, surging oil prices, sluggish consumption, and weak demand for new energy vehicles created significant pressure on the domestic trend for new energy vehicles in 2026. BYD Company Limited maintained its top position in 2026, but faced considerable growth pressure in plug-in hybrid vehicles. Chery and Leapmotor showed strong growth in new energy vehicles.
Production and Sales Trends for Traditional Powertrain Passenger Vehicle Enterprises
Sales of traditional fuel-powered passenger vehicles (narrow definition) in 2025 were 14.22 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. Sales for the first half of 2026 were 5.76 million units, a decrease of 16%. With persistently high oil prices, the market trend in 2026 remained relatively weak. Supported by exports, the overall performance of fuel-powered vehicles in 2026 diverged, with independent brands performing exceptionally strongly and major joint venture automakers weakening rapidly in the short term.
Production and Sales Classification Trends for Bus Enterprises
Total cumulative bus sales for the full year 2025 were 920,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 15%. Total bus sales for the first half of 2026 were 420,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, with export and new energy logistics vehicle contributions being moderate. Following a year-end push in 2025, the bus market trend gradually strengthened in 2026. SAIC-GM-Wuling performed very strongly, and leading manufacturers like SAIC Maxus showed relatively strong sales in recent months. Market demand for logistics-type light buses and micro-buses fluctuated significantly, with exports making a huge contribution. In 2026, Jiangling Motors and SAIC Maxus showed good commercial vehicle trends. In June, logistics vehicle enterprises like Zhengzhou Yutong, Beiqi Foton, and SAIC Maxus saw significant sequential recovery.
Production and Sales Classification Trends for Truck Enterprises
Truck sales in 2025 were 3.72 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 11%. Truck sales for the first half of 2026 were 2.02 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9%, forming a divergence between consumption and production: consumption plummeted while production saw super-strong growth. The performance of major truck manufacturers diverged noticeably in 2026, with leading truck manufacturers performing strongly. Manufacturers like Beiqi Foton, China FAW Group, Sinotruk, and JAC Motors saw explosive year-on-year growth compared to June of the previous year. The effect of commercial vehicle subsidies was prominent in 2026, with heavy-duty trucks experiencing explosive growth. Pure electric heavy-duty trucks performed very strongly, with FAW, Shaanxi Automobile Group, and Sinotruk showing strong growth. The industry landscape remained relatively stable.
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