BOC International Cuts MINISO (09896) Target Price to HK$46.1, Expects Q4 Core Business Improvement

Stock News11-24

BOC International released a research report stating that market concerns over MINISO's (09896) core business are excessive, potentially presenting a buying opportunity—especially if negative factors from the Yonghui Superstores acquisition ease.

The firm lowered its H-share target price from HK$48.4 to HK$46.1, based on a revised 2026 forecast of 15x adjusted EPS. For U.S. shares (MNSO.US), the target was reduced from $24.8 to $23.6, equivalent to 19x 2025 adjusted EPS or 29x/18x reported EPS for 2024/2025. The "Buy" rating was maintained.

BOC noted MINISO's mixed Q3 2024 results and expects investors to remain cautious about the Yonghui acquisition and broader strategy amid rising market uncertainty. However, focusing on MINISO's core business, the bank believes the company is well-positioned for global market share gains through its strong IP strategy.

The bank raised MINISO's adjusted EPS forecasts for FY2025 by 4% but cut FY2026–2027 estimates by 6% and 7%, respectively. Reported EPS projections were slashed by 35%, 22%, and 20% for the same periods.

BOC emphasized MINISO's trajectory toward stronger organic growth post-implementation of initiatives, with valuations remaining reasonable given long-term prospects. The share buyback program is also expected to support the stock price, offsetting some drag from the Yonghui deal.

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