China's copper demand is projected to reach its peak around 2028–2030, with annual consumption stabilizing at approximately 17 million tons before maintaining high levels thereafter. The rise of new energy sectors has not altered the fundamental "S-curve pattern" of copper demand, according to Wang Gaoshang, Chief Strategy Analyst at Zijin Mining Group. He shared these insights during the 11th New Energy Industry Expo held on April 8.
Wang explained that the S-curve pattern describes how metal demand—particularly for industrial metals—first increases and then declines over the course of industrialization. Based on the relationship between copper demand and economic growth observed overseas, he noted that per capita copper consumption generally follows a four-stage trajectory relative to per capita GDP: accelerated growth, decelerated growth, peak consumption, and eventual decline. These stages correspond to per capita GDP levels of $3,000–$12,000, $12,000–$20,000, around $20,000, and above $20,000, respectively. With China's per capita GDP expected to reach about $14,000 by 2025, the country is currently in the phase of decelerating growth in copper consumption.
Citing examples from developed economies, Wang pointed out that consumption of bulk metals such as steel and copper has typically fallen by 30% or more from historical peaks. Regarding the widespread market view that copper—essential for new energy development—has significant growth potential, Wang emphasized that traditional applications still account for over 90% of copper demand. While increased usage in new energy sectors provides some support to overall demand, it has not fundamentally altered copper's demand trajectory.
Wang also highlighted a clear divergence in price trends among different metals. Using constant 1998 prices as a benchmark, he noted that precious metals like gold and silver have seen sustained price increases, while prices of industrial metals such as iron, lithium, nickel, zinc, and aluminum have remained flat or declined. This trend suggests that rising prices for certain resources are driven primarily by financial and geopolitical factors rather than industrial demand.
"Different resources possess varying degrees of financial, industrial (supply-demand), and monopolistic attributes, leading to differentiated price levels. Their price trends are influenced by both global industrialization cycles and financial-monetary cycles," Wang stated. "At present, China's industrialization process remains a key factor shaping the price direction of bulk minerals."
In summary, Wang attributed the recent roller-coaster price movements in new energy minerals to a combination of energy transition efforts, geopolitical tensions, and the downward phase of the bulk minerals cycle. He concluded, "Temporary oversupply and significant market volatility may become common phenomena in the new energy minerals market."
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