1. What are the full-year performance expectations for XIABUXIABU? As of November 27, 2025, based on quarterly performance forecast data, the company's full-year consensus revenue is projected at RMB4.042–4.166 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.0% to 12.4%. The full-year consensus net profit is forecasted at a loss of RMB242–91 million, with a YoY improvement of 39.6% to 77.3%. Investors should monitor whether actual results exceed expectations upon future financial disclosures.
2. How do analysts view XIABUXIABU? Guoyuan Hong Kong notes that while operational pressures persist, the company significantly reduced losses in H1 2025. External challenges have weighed on performance in recent years, with the brand undergoing adjustments. In H1 2025, revenue reached RMB1.942 billion, down 18.88% YoY: the XIABUXIABU brand contributed RMB1.135 billion (-13.5% YoY), while the Coucou brand generated RMB745 million (-25.8% YoY). Net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed to RMB84 million from RMB272 million YoY, driven by lower raw material costs and reduced asset impairment losses.
XIABUXIABU has introduced an internal partnership model, supporting steady store expansion. As of H1 2025, the brand operated 763 stores, with 42.6% in Tier 1 cities, 41.0% in Tier 2, 16.0% in Tier 3 and below, and 0.4% overseas. Store count decreased by 63 YoY but rose by 3 compared to end-2024, indicating stabilization. The company has optimized operations by promoting smaller store formats and controlling construction costs. The average table turnover rate improved to 2.6x (vs. 2.3x YoY), while same-store sales fell 15.6% to RMB910.4 million. Average spending per customer dropped RMB5.9 to RMB53.7. The partnership model, launched in July 2025, currently includes five stores with higher operating margins. The company plans to add 60 partnership stores by end-2026 to further improve profitability.
The Coucou brand remains under pressure, undergoing store closures. As of H1 2025, it operated 174 stores (36.8% Tier 1, 52.3% Tier 2, 1.7% Tier 3 and below, 9.2% overseas), down 71 YoY and 23 since end-2024. Table turnover declined to 1.4x (vs. 1.6x YoY), with same-store sales down 14.0% to RMB653 million. However, average spending per customer rose RMB6.0 to RMB143.8. The brand’s restructuring continues, with a dual-menu (self-service + à la carte) pilot showing better performance than regular stores, set for nationwide rollout.
While the XIABUXIABU brand has been profitable since 2023, Coucou’s struggles have dragged on overall performance. Recent restructuring measures show early signs of success, though sustainability remains to be seen. Forecasts for 2025–2027 project net losses of RMB242 million, RMB21 million, and a profit of RMB11 million, respectively, with a target price of HKD1.15/share (0.25x 2026 P/S).
Risk Warning: The data or cases presented are for reference only and should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Stock investments carry risks, including market volatility, company performance, and policy changes. Investors should conduct thorough research and assess risk tolerance before investing.
Comments