**Soybean Meal** On Monday, CBOT soybeans hit a seven-week low amid a broad sell-off in agricultural markets. Concerns over sluggish U.S. export demand and expectations of a bumper Brazilian crop continued to drive risk-off sentiment. The USDA reported a large soybean sale of 136,000 metric tons to China. Weekly export inspections for U.S. soybeans stood at 795,700 metric tons as of December 11, in line with market expectations, with China accounting for 25.39% (202,000 metric tons). However, current export sales remain far below market projections. With South American soybeans expected to be more competitive upon their market debut in early 2024, U.S. export prospects appear dim. Domestically, soybean meal prices remained weak due to ample supply, smooth forward soybean procurement, persistent losses in livestock farming, and cautious feed ingredient purchases. High crushing volumes and elevated oilseed inventories at mills further pressured prices. Short-term trading is recommended.
**Palm Oil** BMD palm oil closed lower on Monday, tracking broader market weakness. Shipping data showed Malaysia’s palm oil exports for December 1–15 fell 15.9%–16.4% month-on-month, with the decline widening from the first 10 days. India’s November palm oil imports rose 5% to 632,000 metric tons, below earlier estimates of 750,000 tons, as reported by SEA. Weak export demand hampers inventory drawdowns in Malaysia, keeping prices under pressure. In China, palm oil prices softened amid expectations of lower import costs, abundant supply, tepid demand, and high stockpiles. Customs clearance delays had limited impact, leaving the oversupply outlook intact. Strategies include selling call options and short-term futures trading.
**Live Hogs** The March 2024 hog futures contract (2603) edged lower on Monday, closing flat with a doji candle. Near-month contracts outperformed deferred ones, signaling a tentative bottom. The national average hog price dipped slightly to CNY 11.45/kg, with Xinjiang (CNY 10.75/kg) and Guangdong (CNY 12.40/kg) at the extremes. The standard-to-heavy hog spread narrowed to -CNY 0.47/kg. Daily slaughter volumes at key farms fell 3.15% to 277,319 heads, while average carcass weight dipped 0.02% to 123.67 kg. Market sentiment remains bearish due to ample supply of heavyweight hogs and expectations of rising slaughter volumes, though policy-driven destocking supports deferred contracts.
**Eggs** Egg futures rebounded from lows on Monday, with the January 2024 contract (2601) gaining 1.46% to CNY 3,122/500kg and the March contract (2603) up 0.56% at CNY 3,041/500kg. Spot prices held steady at CNY 3.03/jin, with regional variations: Ningguan pink shell (CNY 2.95/jin), Heishan brown shell (CNY 2.90/jin), Puxi brown shell (CNY 3.27/jin), and Guangzhou brown shell (CNY 3.30/jin). Stable demand and cautious trader procurement kept prices flat. The recent decline in layer culling has eased supply pressure, but market participants remain wary of shifts in breeding sentiment.
**Corn** Corn futures led declines on Monday, with the March 2024 contract (2603) underperforming. The January contract shed 50,000 lots in open interest, while March and May contracts faced resistance at weekly moving averages. Spot markets saw firmer prices in Northeast China due to reduced farmer sales, though weak downstream demand capped gains. Port traders reported muted activity with negotiable premiums. Technically, March and May contracts are testing mid-May resistance levels, with momentum lacking. A near-term correction is expected to persist.
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