Market U.S. stock markets closed lower for the week, with Middle East conflicts driving a sharp increase in oil prices and putting pressure on major indices. Among the top 20 stocks by trading volume, Palantir gained 15% over the week, supported by a favorable court ruling that strengthened its intellectual property and talent protection. Popular U.S.-listed Chinese stocks showed mixed performance: JD.com rose 6.12%, while Pony.ai fell 8.17%. Gold and silver posted weekly declines, extending losses into March. Oil prices surged 35% this week, marking the largest single-week gain since futures trading began in 1983. U.S. crude oil prices surpassed $92 per barrel as ongoing conflict in Iran continued to disrupt energy supplies. European equities recorded their largest weekly decline since April, although energy stocks outperformed the broader market.
Macro As the conflict entered its second week, former President Trump called for Iran's "unconditional surrender." The U.S. announced it will provide insurance coverage for oil tankers operating in the Middle East. The Trump administration unveiled a $20 billion reinsurance program for tankers amid the Iran war. The average tax refund issued by the IRS increased by 10.6%. Tariff refunds faced delays as U.S. Customs stated it could not comply with orders to halt emergency tariff calculations. Customs officials confirmed that approximately $166 billion in tariffs had been collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The White House reported progress in securing control over Iranian airspace. The Pentagon and the FAA will conduct tests of a high-energy anti-drone laser system in New Mexico. Venezuela resumed exports of diluted crude oil. Iran claimed it launched missiles toward the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Lincoln. France deployed an amphibious assault ship to the Mediterranean. Russia plans to divert some of its liquefied natural gas supplies away from Europe.
Corporate Anthropic, labeled a "supply chain risk" by the Pentagon, may face a potential ban. Oracle and OpenAI abandoned plans to expand a data center in Texas. User growth for Claude continued to surge following earlier collaboration issues with the Pentagon. The SEC fined the NYSE $9 million for a technical glitch that disrupted stock trading. U.S. airlines have stopped hedging fuel costs, which could hurt profit margins if the Iran conflict persists. Boeing reportedly received a large aircraft order, leading to a rise in its share price. Honeywell's aerospace division plans to raise up to $20 billion ahead of a spinoff. Anthropic launched an AI software marketplace modeled after Amazon's approach. Blue Owl has a £36 million exposure to a British lender that entered administration.
Commentary The International Energy Agency noted that while logistics disruptions pose challenges, global oil supplies remain sufficient. A Kansas City Fed official highlighted structural changes in the U.S. labor market. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, an unexpected setback. Barclays suggested Brent crude could test $120 per barrel if Middle East tensions continue. A European Central Bank official emphasized the need to remain "vigilant" against upside price risks. A Federal Reserve official noted that interest rates face two-sided risks. In European bond markets, UK gilt yields climbed as surging oil prices dampened expectations for interest rate cuts. A Fed official maintained that rate cuts could still resume before year-end. A hiring slowdown has challenged the Fed's consensus, complicating rate decisions amid persistent inflation pressures. Global bond markets declined due to inflation concerns. Stealth layoffs: CEOs warn that AI is quietly excluding Americans from the job market. A Fed governor indicated they would oppose maintaining the current policy stance at the March meeting. Gold trimmed its weekly losses as weak jobs data boosted expectations for Fed rate cuts. U.S. crude oil prices rose above $90 per barrel amid ongoing supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. In U.S. bond markets, short-term Treasuries held gains following the jobs report, while swap spreads experienced significant volatility. Overnight headlines included Trump's demand for Iran's surrender, continued user growth for Claude, and U.S. airlines' decision to stop hedging fuel costs. Crude oil: U.S. oil posted a record weekly gain as the Iran conflict continued to impact energy supplies.
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