美通胀居高不下，为何传统行业、股市、政府反而受益

第一财经2021-09-02

美股整体趋势是传统行业大幅上涨，新兴行业却出现下滑。在上周万众期待的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会讲话上，美联储主席鲍威尔屡屡提及通胀，全美通胀高温不下的严峻态势可见一斑。不过，尽管鲍威尔的讲话全篇围绕核心问题，但却又“说了等于没说”，依旧重申通胀暂时论的观点。也许，美联储对“暂时性”的时间范畴进行了全新定义。根据美国商务部近期发布数据显示，7月美国个人消费支出PCE物价指数同比再度走高，核心PCE...

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Comments

SunnyLeo
2021-09-03
SunnyLeo
慣性太大[開心]
- SunnyLeo:
  [龇牙][龇牙][龇牙]
hhyw
2021-09-03
hhyw
瘋狂，太瘋狂了??
SDLiuSG
2021-09-03
SDLiuSG
Good
- SDLiuSG:
  share
EricBong
2021-09-03
EricBong
好好
Youn7276
2021-09-03
Youn7276
閱！
Anzhuo
2021-09-02
Anzhuo
老虎首頁這個編輯真的太沒水平了，通脹，貨幣購買力下降，權益類資產當然水漲船高。聽君一席話，如聽一席話。
- Youn7276:
  好！
- 天天天天涨停板:
  越来越多的文章不值得一读了[捂脸]
- SGY:
  [Miser]

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Why do traditional industries, stock markets and governments benefit instead","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/761c2bb0988230ffeec7c2274ea00a99","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"美股整体趋势是传统行业大幅上涨，新兴行业却出现下滑。\n在上周万众期待的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会讲话上，美联储主席鲍威尔屡屡提及通胀，全美通胀高温不下的严峻态势可见一斑。不过，尽管鲍威尔的讲话全篇围绕核心问题，但却又“说了等于没说”，依旧重申通胀暂时论的观点。也许，美联储对“暂时性”的时间范畴进行了全新定义。\n根据美国商务部近期发布数据显示，7月美国个人消费支出PCE物价指数同比再度走高，核心PCE物价指数同比创30年来新高。在鲍威尔坚持的暂时论基调之下，美国民众面临的是居高不下的物价和对美联储“暂时性”的等待。因为工资的增幅乃至获得的联邦补助金，都在逐渐被超标的通胀抵消。\n谁在从高通胀中受益？\n在通胀高企背景下，是否仍有受益者？\n美国汇盛金融公司首席经济学家陈凯丰对第一财经表示，受益方主要是企业，因为利润率很高，企业基本都在赚大钱。在第二财季，标普500指数成分股的业绩表现非常强劲，整体利润超出分析师预期，且基本各行业的情况都是如此。\n根据FactSet截止8月中旬统计的数据显示，已有91%标普500指数成分股公司发布了第二季度财报，其中87%的公司发布的实际收入超出预期，而整体来说，标普500指数成分股公司收入比预期高了4.9%。在2021年第二季度，业绩超预期的公司百分比高于过去一年74%的水平，更高于过去五年65%的水平。甚至，第二季度是自FactSet从2008年开始跟踪该指标以来，业绩超预期的公司所占标普500指数成分股公司百分比最高的一个季度。其中，医疗、通信服务、信息科技行业的公司所占比例最高。\n\n随着公司利润超预期推动股票上涨，标普500指数在今年已创下53次新高。美国投行与机构证券公司Piper Sandler的首席市场技术分析师约翰逊（Craig Johnson）对第一财经记者表示，预计标普500指数会在年内升至4625点。\n具体到板块方面，陈凯丰表示，可以关注具备高现金流的企业，其分红和回购都会快速上升，以此对抗通胀。在今年，涨势突出的都是具有现金流的公司，比如垃圾处理行业。\n年初迄今，美国三大垃圾公司——美国废物管理公司（Waste Management Inc.）股价累计已上涨31.53%，美国共和废品处理公司（Republic Services Inc.）累计上涨28.90%，而美国废物联合公司（Waste Connections Inc.）也涨了26%。\n除了垃圾处理行业，陈凯丰表示，包括电、水、医院等具备抗通胀能力的行业都在今年猛涨，相反，包括特斯拉、远程医疗在内的高成长类企业/行业在今年却出现下跌。这也是尽管今年美股持续上涨，但散户却在今年遭遇亏损的原因。区别就在于通胀的变化导致板块走势出现了变化，但部分散户投资者并未及时作出调整。\n陈凯丰表示，今年美国传统行业整体现金流都不错，美股的整体趋势是传统行业大幅上涨，新兴行业却出现下滑。比如传统行业的美国汽车龙头福特汽车在上半年的涨幅接近80%，美国传统医疗HCA（HCA Healthcare）年初迄今涨了55%，相比之下，数字医疗龙头企业Teladoc Health却在今年累计下滑接近30%。\n\n诚然，美国通胀居高不下的“始作俑者”是疫情蔓延。一方面，疫情增加了物流成本，从而推升通胀。\n陈凯丰提到，比如星巴克咖啡涨价的核心原因就并非是咖啡豆本身价格上涨，而是物流成本高出许多。另一方面，疫情也导致包括餐馆、医院等相关行业用人成本提升。根据医疗人力资源公司SimpliFi提供的数据，美国旅行护士（指在美国各卫生保健机构进行临时工作，并不断更换工作场所的护士）在8月的薪资同比上涨逾40%，而在急诊室工作的相关人员涨幅更是达到60%。同时，人力资源紧缺态势明显，比如在美国得克萨斯州，注册护士的职位空缺超过23000个。\n在高通胀环境下，贷款企业或家庭也能从中受益。企业可以趁势提高产品、服务的价格，进而将额外的收入用来偿还尚未偿还的债务。同理，高通胀也有利于债台高筑的政府，通过货币贬来抵消一部分的债务。\n德国马普学院（Max-Planck-Institut）公共财政研究所所长凯·康拉德（KaiA.Konrad）就曾指出，通货膨胀是一种资本再分配，若通胀率超出预期两个百分点，那么该国的债务负担就能减轻大约10%。此外，土地及有形资产拥有者亦能受益于高通胀环境。\n疫情或继续抬升通胀上行风险\n美国7月消费者价格指数的环比涨幅为0.5%，相对前一个月份而言有所放缓，也呼应了美联储的“通胀暂时论”。但值得注意的是，能源价格还在继续上行。华尔街交易员艾伦·瓦尔代兹（Alan 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