On April 6th, gold experienced significant volatility, opening with a sharp decline to around $4600 before rebounding in a fluctuating pattern. The European trading session pushed prices to a daily high of $4705, though gains were partially reversed during US hours. The metal ultimately settled into a consolidation pattern, closing at $4645 with a bearish daily candlestick.
As of Tuesday, April 7th, the market is caught between two opposing forces: the approaching US deadline concerning Iran and expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts reaching a standstill. Geopolitical tensions provide a floor for gold prices, while stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data and hawkish comments from Fed officials have kept interest rate expectations elevated, supporting the US dollar and limiting gold's upside. Consequently, gold is oscillating within a narrow range, pulled between safe-haven demand and macroeconomic pressure.
The geopolitical situation is now in a critical countdown phase. Iran has firmly rejected a temporary ceasefire, though communication between the parties continues through Pakistani intermediaries. If no agreement is reached after the deadline passes, gold could rally on safe-haven inflows. Conversely, any breakthrough in negotiations may trigger a price correction.
Technically, gold extended its decline in early Asian trading today. The hourly chart shows a downward shift in structural momentum, with moving averages crossing lower, suggesting increased risk of further retreat. While intraday expectations lean toward range-bound trading, the bias is tilted toward a continued corrective decline. For trading strategy, the primary approach is to remain观望, awaiting clarity on whether a US-Iran ceasefire agreement will emerge tomorrow. Although the likelihood of a deal is low, caution is advised given recent unpredictability. Aggressive traders may consider range-trading strategies within the expected boundaries, with a preference for short positions near the upper end.
In summary, the market awaits either the outcome of the geopolitical deadline or key events later this week, including the release of Fed meeting minutes and CPI data. With bullish and bearish factors in fierce contention and direction unclear, aggressive positioning is not recommended. Conservative traders should adhere to range-trading principles, selling near resistance and buying near support.
Today's trading suggestions: Gold: Sell between $4650-4645, stop loss at $4660, target $4550-4500. Hold if support breaks. If price stabilizes above $4670, consider a long position with upward targets.
Key economic data and events for Tuesday, April 7th: 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MoM (February) 23:00 NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations (March) Next day 00:35 Speech by Fed Governor Goolsbee on monetary policy
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