Morgan Stanley, Goldman Say Stocks Have Yet to Find a Bottom

Bloomberg2022-07-18

Odds of a recession continue to rise, with weak jobs data: MSGoldman’s Oppenheimer says too soon to dismiss inflation fearsA rally in stock markets may prove to be short-lived as inflation pressures ...

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Comments

Twhyger
2022-07-19
Twhyger
Ok, standing by for the bottom.
kenong62
2022-07-19
kenong62
Like
SherryVJ
2022-07-19
SherryVJ
✅ ok
SK19
2022-07-18
SK19
Spot on!
BKT
2022-07-18
BKT
Pls like thanks.
miker9110
2022-07-18
miker9110
K

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Wilson, the odds of a US recession continue to increase, with the broker’s model showing a 36% probability in the next 12 months, while other warnings include rising jobless claims and falling job openings. “Counter-trend rally may continue, but make no mistake, we don’t believe this bear market is over, even if we avoid a recession,” he wrote in a note on Monday.Wall Street’s top strategists are urging caution as US and European stock markets rally amid bets that the Fedwon’t deliveran outsized rate hike at its meeting next week, and as fresh data showed a bigger-than-expected decline in US consumers’ long-term inflation expectations.But Oppenheimer warned that even if the headline inflation figure starts to come down, it’s too soon to expect that consumer prices would follow suit quickly.With the macroeconomic outlook remaining gloomy, investors are turning to the corporate earnings season to see if margins have been resilient to the surge in prices and glum sentiment.JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists say that markets could look through more challenging earnings-related newsflow over the summer. Stocks generally tend to peak at or ahead of the earnings trough, strategists led by Mislav Matejka wrote in a note on Monday, adding that the market could be nearing a point where bad data start to be seen as good news.But Morgan Stanley’s Wilson, who has been one of the staunchest equity bears this year and who correctly predicted the latest selloff, said he was “skeptical” about expectations that margin pressures would ease beyond the second quarter.“The combination of continued labor, raw material, inventory and transport cost pressures coupled with decelerating demand poses a risk to margins that is not reflected in consensus estimates,” Wilson said, adding that even if estimates for revenue growth remain static, a return to pre-Covid net margin levels implied a 10% hit to forward earnings-per-share.Goldman Sachs strategist David J. Kostin said in a note on July 15 that he expects the weak macroeconomic outlook to threaten companies’ profitability, which has already receded from record highs. Margins and borrowing costs are now two key risks for stocks’ return-on-equity, which held up in the past year despite rising input costs, omicron and supply chain disruptions, he said.But in the meantime, Goldman’s Oppenheimer is more bullish about the next 12 months for equity markets. “Keep in mind bear markets nearly always trough when you’re in a recession and data is bad and earnings are still being revised down,” he said on Bloomberg TV, adding that cyclical stocks and technology are likely to lead the rally once equities show a meaningful recovery.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9075856434,"gmtCreate":1658188133428,"gmtModify":1676536118001,"author":{"id":"3586459019020703","authorId":"3586459019020703","name":"Twhyger","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/924944c1d1cd489c6dea99de491ff2b1","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586459019020703","authorIdStr":"3586459019020703"},"htmlText":"Ok, standing by for the bottom.","listText":"Ok, standing by for the bottom.","text":"Ok, standing by for the bottom.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075856434","repostId":1154611503,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9075159824,"gmtCreate":1658181397168,"gmtModify":1676536115453,"author":{"id":"3574928367638029","authorId":"3574928367638029","name":"kenong62","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37fd00bd8cea11b8aa1aed6d9ddd9413","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574928367638029","authorIdStr":"3574928367638029"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075159824","repostId":1154611503,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9075117481,"gmtCreate":1658162765343,"gmtModify":1676536114733,"author":{"id":"3586426326873853","authorId":"3586426326873853","name":"SherryVJ","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1881722e980e541f3c66ed217d5b91c6","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3586426326873853","authorIdStr":"3586426326873853"},"htmlText":"✅ ok","listText":"✅ ok","text":"✅ ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075117481","repostId":1154611503,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9075100118,"gmtCreate":1658155403934,"gmtModify":1676536113804,"author":{"id":"3577755293052640","authorId":"3577755293052640","name":"SK19","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6b25332525b16399562f21677fa1cd","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577755293052640","authorIdStr":"3577755293052640"},"htmlText":"Spot on!","listText":"Spot on!","text":"Spot on!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075100118","repostId":1154611503,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9075347042,"gmtCreate":1658154255586,"gmtModify":1676536113517,"author":{"id":"3570853427202414","authorId":"3570853427202414","name":"BKT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15cb8e8f0a7c44ca01c83b3bfdddbd86","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570853427202414","authorIdStr":"3570853427202414"},"htmlText":"Pls like thanks.","listText":"Pls like thanks.","text":"Pls like thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075347042","repostId":1154611503,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9075342604,"gmtCreate":1658154047208,"gmtModify":1676536113456,"author":{"id":"3568440341211251","authorId":"3568440341211251","name":"miker9110","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f28ba582b05ac94b2b60a5b9a550a10","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568440341211251","authorIdStr":"3568440341211251"},"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9075342604","repostId":1154611503,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":118,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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