The surge in global technology stocks driven by artificial intelligence has raised concerns about a potential bubble. Some analysts are drawing parallels between the current situation and the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, seeking guidance from the past. According to BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky, the top ten performing stocks in the Nasdaq 100 over the past year have averaged a gain of 784%. This surpasses the average gain of 622% for the top performers in the year leading up to the index's peak in March 2000.
The previous Nasdaq boom centered on the internet, networking, chips, storage, and the new digital economy. The current rally, however, is focused on AI infrastructure, memory, data centers, Bitcoin, and the physical limits of computing power.
Statistics show that during the internet era, most of the top ten gainers were software companies. The top performer, now known as Microstrategy, was formerly called Strategy. Its core business was once software, but it has since transformed into a Bitcoin asset management firm.
Former market darlings like SanDisk and Lam Research have reappeared on the leaderboard after more than two decades, highlighting the enduring importance and advantage of these semiconductor companies in both the internet and AI eras. Tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, and Adobe, while not among the top gainers in the current AI boom, have reached the pinnacle of global market capitalization, reflecting their sustained market favor over a long period.
In the current upswing, chip companies dominate. With the exception of Warner Bros. Discovery, the other nine top performers are involved in semiconductor manufacturing or equipment supply, underscoring the sector's current popularity. This trend was further evidenced later in the week, with SanDisk's stock price surging 4040% over the past 12 months as of this Friday, Western Digital up 955%, and Micron up 770%.
Meanwhile, a comparison with the past reveals a more pronounced effect from leading stocks. The average gain for the top stocks in 2000 was 622%, with a median gain of 455%. In the current market, the average gain is 784%, but the median is only 354%. In other words, the AI boom has indeed driven a broad rally in U.S. tech stocks, but the biggest winners may be few in number and are likely already overvalued. Given SanDisk's gain exceeding 4000%, this concern is not unfounded.
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