Abstract
Alexander's will report Q4 2025 results on February 09, 2026 Pre-Market, with investors watching revenue resilience, margins, and rent collections amid stable occupancy and muted leasing activity.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, Alexander's is forecast to deliver revenue of $53.40 million, implying a year-over-year decline of 3.26%; forecasts for gross profit margin, net profit or margin, and adjusted EPS are not available. The company’s main business remains rent from its New York metropolitan properties, and performance hinges on the stability of base rents and reimbursements for property operating costs. The most promising segment remains recurring rent, contributing $52.16 million last quarter, though it faced a year-over-year decline of 4.04% at the consolidated revenue level.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Alexander's reported revenue of $53.42 million, a gross profit margin of 50.04%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $5.97 million, a net profit margin of 11.17%, and adjusted EPS was not disclosed; revenue declined 4.04% year over year. Net profit fell sequentially by 2.48%, reflecting steady but pressured profitability against a backdrop of modest rent growth and operating cost trends. Main business revenue was dominated by rent at $52.16 million and expense reimbursements at $1.27 million, together totaling $53.42 million and pointing to the ongoing primacy of contractual recurring income.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business: Rent-driven recurring revenue
The central driver this quarter remains rent from Alexander's core property portfolio, which accounted for $52.16 million last quarter. With forecast revenue at $53.40 million and last quarter’s gross profit margin at 50.04%, the key swing factor will be the combination of contractual rent escalations and pass-through recoveries against property-level costs. Occupancy and tenant retention will matter to quarter-to-quarter variability, but the reported net profit margin of 11.17% suggests operating leverage is moderate. Given the prior quarter’s 4.04% year-over-year decline in consolidated revenue and sequential net profit contraction of 2.48%, the baseline assumption for this quarter is stable, slightly lower revenue, aligning with the 3.26% year-over-year decline implied by the forecast. The absence of updated EPS guidance makes distributable trends harder to calibrate, but the revenue mix indicates recurring rent remains the principal stabilizer.
Most promising business: Contractual base rents with cost pass-through
Within the revenue mix, contractual base rents and expense reimbursements collectively remain the strongest visibility contributors. Expense reimbursements of $1.27 million last quarter offset a portion of operating cost inflation, helping preserve a gross margin of 50.04%. If property operating costs remain contained, the combination of base rent and recoveries can defend margins near recent levels. The forecast revenue of $53.40 million suggests renewal rent spreads or escalators are not expected to produce a material uplift near term, but this segment’s predictability still positions it as the most dependable contributor. In a scenario where leasing volumes are muted, fixed escalators and recoveries can still provide partial insulation, though the year-over-year revenue contraction underscores limited pricing power in the quarter in view.
Key stock price driver this quarter: Margin resilience vs. revenue softness
With last quarter’s gross margin at 50.04% and net margin at 11.17%, the market narrative will likely center on whether Alexander's can maintain margin stability despite the projected 3.26% revenue decline. The sequential net profit dip of 2.48% highlights sensitivity to small revenue movements, suggesting investors will scrutinize expense control and the pace of reimbursements. Any deviation in property-level expenses or timing of recoveries can influence quarterly net margin, which in turn may drive stock reaction more than the modest top-line change. In the absence of EPS estimates, margin commentary and operating cost management are poised to be the focal points of investor interpretation.
Analyst Opinions
Coverage and forward-looking opinions specific to this quarter appear limited within the latest period, and available institutional commentary leans cautious, citing modest top-line pressure and focus on cost containment. In this context, the prevailing view emphasizes stable but subdued fundamentals, with attention on maintaining approximately half-on-half gross margin performance near the last reported 50.04% and safeguarding net profitability around recent levels given the 11.17% margin baseline. The cautious stance reflects the forecast revenue decline of 3.26% year over year and the recent sequential easing in net profit of 2.48%, with the expectation that defensible recurring rent and reimbursements will anchor results while leaving little room for upside surprise absent a shift in leasing momentum.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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