On October 19, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first three quarters of 2026. Preliminary calculations show that gross domestic product (GDP) for the first three quarters reached 107.1071 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% at constant prices. By quarter, growth was 5.0% in the first quarter, 4.3% in the second quarter, and 4.5% in the third quarter, with third-quarter growth rebounding 0.2 percentage points from the second quarter. Against the backdrop of a complex and severe international environment, rising global inflationary pressures, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, China's economy withstood multiple pressures, demonstrating a development trend of "stable operation, new momentum, optimized structure, and improved quality and efficiency," delivering a hard-won report card.
Stable Foundation: The Resilient Backbone Behind 4.6% Growth
Examining the economic data for the first three quarters, "stability" is the most prominent underlying feature. From the four major macroeconomic indicators of growth, employment, prices, and international balance of payments, China's economy is operating within a reasonable range, with a solid foundation and demonstrated resilience.
Economic growth is stable with upward momentum. GDP grew 4.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters, consistent with the annual economic growth target. Notably, third-quarter growth rebounded to 4.5% after a brief decline in the second quarter, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.2%, showing a stabilizing and recovering trend. In September, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.5% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than the previous month; total retail sales of consumer goods grew 1.1% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points faster than the previous month; total imports and exports grew 27.5% year-on-year, 7.7 percentage points faster than the previous month, with major economic indicators generally improving.
The employment situation is generally stable. The average urban surveyed unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2%, unchanged from the same period last year. In September, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. At the end of the third quarter, the total number of rural migrant workers was 192.7 million, up 0.4% year-on-year, with employment in transportation, accommodation and catering industries increasing.
Price levels are moderate and controllable. Against the backdrop of significantly increased global inflationary pressures, China's prices maintained moderate growth. In the first three quarters, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.9% year-on-year, with core CPI up 1.1%, and monthly increases stabilized around 1%. The producer price index (PPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year, marking seven consecutive months of year-on-year growth since emerging from the downward range in March, with the corporate profit environment continuing to improve. From January to August, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved total profits of 5.272 trillion yuan, up 15.7% year-on-year.
The international balance of payments remains balanced. In the first three quarters, total goods imports and exports reached 39.9399 trillion yuan, up 18.8% year-on-year, setting a new record for the same period in history. Foreign exchange reserves remained stable above 3.4 trillion US dollars for six consecutive months, and the renminbi appreciated about 4.3% against the US dollar, with the exchange rate stable with upward momentum.
The "2026 Third Quarter Economist Survey" showed that more than half of the 60 surveyed economists believed third-quarter economic growth fell in the 4.4% to 4.6% range, providing good support for achieving the annual economic growth target. Li Daxiao, chief economist at Yingda Securities, stated that the overall 4.6% growth in the first three quarters combined with the quarter-on-quarter improvement in the third quarter fully confirms that China's economy possesses extremely strong resilience and anti-fluctuation capacity, and the core pattern of a stable and improving macroeconomic foundation has not changed.
New Momentum: New Quality Productive Forces Support Half of Growth
The rapid growth of new momentum is the most prominent highlight of economic development in the first three quarters of this year. Preliminary estimates show that new momentum represented by high-end manufacturing, the digital intelligence economy, and modern services contributed over 40% to economic growth in the first three quarters; industrial new momentum contributed over 50% to the growth of value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size. The "baton" of economic growth is accelerating its transfer to new momentum.
High-tech manufacturing leads industrial growth. In the first three quarters, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 5.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing value-added growing 5.7%, accounting for 25.7% of GDP, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing performed particularly well, with value-added growing 10.2% and 14.3% year-on-year respectively, faster than all industrial enterprises above designated size by 4.9 and 9.0 percentage points, with their shares of industrial output above designated size rising to 37.6% and 18.3% respectively.
At the welding workshop of the Seres Super Factory in Chongqing's Liangjiang New Area, hundreds of industrial robots maintain millimeter-level collaborative operations, with body welding points fully automated without human intervention. AGV unmanned transport vehicles shuttle along optimal paths, and AI visual inspection terminals create专属 digital files for each vehicle, with full traceability from parts entering the factory to finished vehicles rolling off the line. It is precisely such intelligent manufacturing practices that allow enterprises to maintain leadership in fierce market competition. To date, Chongqing has built 5 global lighthouse factories, ranking first in western China.
"AI+" has transformed from a technology option to a production standard. Since the beginning of this year, China has actively seized strategic opportunities, deepened and expanded "AI+" initiatives, with artificial intelligence accelerating from technological innovation to industrial application. In the first three quarters, the value-added of digital product manufacturing above designated size grew 13.6% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the first half, contributing over one-third to the growth of industrial enterprises above designated size. Nationwide, more than 56,000 basic-level, over 9,000 advanced-level, and over 500 excellent-level smart factories have been built, with the application penetration rate of key AI technology scenarios in manufacturing above designated size exceeding one-third. AI is accelerating from a "technology option" to a "production standard."
The performance of listed companies in the AI industry chain has become an important window for observing industry prosperity. Shengyi Technology Co.,Ltd. (SSE: 600183) expects net profit of 6.46 billion to 6.87 billion yuan for the first three quarters, up 164% to 181% year-on-year; Hengtong Optic-Electric Co.,Ltd. (SSE: 600487) expects net profit to grow 151% to 168% year-on-year; Jialichuang expects net profit to grow 78% to 118% year-on-year, with AI-driven hardware innovation R&D demand becoming an important increment. AI application companies such as Wondershare Technology saw AI server calls exceed 900 million in the first half, with AI-native application revenue continuing to grow rapidly.
Green transformation highlights the development底色. In the first three quarters, energy consumption per unit of value-added in industrial enterprises above designated size fell 4.3% year-on-year, and energy consumption per unit of GDP fell 3.1% year-on-year. Clean energy including hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power accounted for 36.8% of electricity generation, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year.
New energy vehicle exports have become a new calling card for foreign trade. In the first three quarters, new energy vehicle exports reached 4.006 million units, up 1.3 times year-on-year. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60% for six consecutive months; from January to August, China's new energy passenger vehicles accounted for over 60% of the global market, meaning that for every 5 new energy passenger vehicles sold globally, 3 come from China. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in the first nine months, automobile exports reached 8.205 million units, up 65.8% year-on-year, and are expected to break through the 10 million mark for the full year. Byd Company Limited (SZSE: 002594) sold 1,337,800 vehicles overseas cumulatively, accounting for 42.7% of the group's total sales; Chery sold 1.55 million vehicles overseas, accounting for 70.3% of its total sales.
Optimized Structure: Coordinated Development of Three Industries Strengthens the Real Economy Foundation
The service industry has become the main engine of economic growth. In the first three quarters, the value-added of the service industry reached 62.8 trillion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points faster than the economic growth rate for the same period, accounting for 58.7% of GDP, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. The contribution of the service industry to economic growth reached 66.3%, up 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, making it the main engine driving economic growth.
The holiday economy has become an important engine of consumption growth. According to calculations by the Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, domestic tourist trips and total tourism spending during this year's National Day holiday increased 6.3% and 4.3% respectively on a comparable basis. "Traveling with events" and "traveling with performances" have become new trends, with 180 large-scale performances including concerts and music festivals held during the National Day period. Changbai Mountain, through business model innovations such as "culture and tourism + ice and snow" and "culture and tourism + wellness," increased the average tourist stay from 1.5 days to 2.5 days, receiving 3,558,600 tourist visits since the beginning of 2026. Animo Village in Dali, Yunnan, developed rural tourism with "stone + art + music," receiving 353,000 tourist visits since May 2024, with collective economic income growing from 36,000 yuan to 246,000 yuan and per capita income growing from 8,000 yuan to 32,000 yuan.
The consumer market is expanding and upgrading. In the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure contributed 46.7% to economic growth, up 0.7 percentage points from the first half. Service consumption became the main driving force—service retail sales grew 5.0% year-on-year, 4 percentage points faster than goods retail sales. Tourism consulting and leasing services and cultural, sports, and leisure services retail sales grew 10.7% and 9.7% respectively.
Beijing's first-store economy has become a window for observing consumption upgrading. From January to September this year, the city added 766 new physical first stores and held 893 first-launch, first-show, first-exhibition, and first-performance events. From health-focused light meal brands to super-health AI experience stores and Time Door Metaverse AI Science and Education Museum and other new technology consumption scenarios, the first-store economy is continuously expanding new consumption boundaries, transforming first-launch advantages into consumption increments. From January to August, visa-free foreign arrivals grew 26.8% year-on-year, with "China Travel" continuing to attract global tourists.
Foreign trade demonstrates open resilience with "fast, new, excellent, and good" characteristics. Foreign trade is a prominent highlight of economic operation in the first three quarters. Total goods imports and exports reached 39.94 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, up 18.8% year-on-year, with exports of 23.2 trillion yuan up 16.4% and imports of 16.74 trillion yuan up 22.3%. By quarter, growth was 15.3% in the first quarter, 18.3% in the second quarter, and accelerated to 22.3% in the third quarter; in September, imports and exports exceeded 5 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 5.16 trillion yuan, up 27.5%.
The trade structure continues to optimize. Private enterprise imports and exports grew 19.1%, accounting for 56.9% of total imports and exports; mechanical and electrical product exports grew 23.7%, accounting for 64.3% of total exports; imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries grew 17.1%, with the foreign trade "circle of friends" expanding.
By product, the "computing power chain" and "electric power chain" are both soaring—in the first three quarters, integrated circuit exports grew 99.1%, computer parts grew 2.1 times; electric vehicle and lithium battery exports grew 72.3% and 36.4% respectively.
Li Daxiao pointed out that foreign trade became the biggest highlight of economic operation in the first three quarters, with the 18.8% import and export growth far exceeding market expectations, demonstrating the strong growth vitality and international market competitiveness of China's foreign trade industry.
Looking Ahead: Policy Intensification Consolidates Positive Momentum
While affirming achievements, difficulties and challenges must also be faced squarely. Mao Shengyong, spokesperson and deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that externally, there are many uncertain and unpredictable factors; internally, problems such as weak domestic demand, strong supply and weak demand, and structural adjustment pressures still exist. However, positive factors are accelerating their accumulation. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, with market expectations continuing to improve. New momentum maintains rapid growth, foreign trade resilience continues to manifest, imports maintain growth above 20%, and China is both the "world's factory" and the "world's market." Innovation, the "key variable," is transforming into the "greatest increment" of high-quality development.
Good winds are precisely when to raise the sails, and the tide is calm with broad shores. Three quarters, over 270 days and nights, China's economic answer sheet is written on the mechanical arms of smart factories that never rest, in the rising smoke of urban and rural streets, and on the roll-on/roll-off ships sailing toward the deep blue—the total of 107 trillion yuan, the 4.6% growth rate, and the 39.94 trillion yuan foreign trade volume all tell the same character: the higher the winds and waves, the more the solid foundation shows. The roots of resilience are planted in a comprehensive industrial system; the springs of potential surge in the demands of over 1.4 billion people. The fundamental fact of China's long-term positive economic outlook has never changed.
See, the water of macroeconomic policy is flowing toward low places and being directed to urgent places, the doors of reform and opening up are opening one by one, and the seedlings of new momentum are growing batch by batch. When the persistence of countless drops of water converges into surging rivers, when countless slender forces twist into a single rope, China's economy has the confidence to ride the long wind and break through huge waves, sailing toward broader seas and skies on the course of high-quality development.
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