According to the latest notebook industry research from TrendForce, the primary risk facing the notebook market in 2027 will shift from supply constraints to the impact of rising costs on demand.
TrendForce currently expects global notebook shipments to see a low single-digit decline in 2027, but if DRAM and CPU prices remain elevated and brands are forced to expand cost pass-through, leading to higher end-device prices, consumer replacement cycles could be further extended, and the annual shipment decline could potentially worsen to a high single-digit range.
TrendForce noted that in 2026, improved CPU supply, advance procurement by brands, and some replacement demand being pulled forward supported notebook market shipments, but this does not represent a genuine recovery in end demand.
As some demand originally expected to be released in the second half and beyond is reflected earlier, subsequent market replacement momentum will be compressed. Combined with the gradual digestion of low-cost inventory, brands will face more directly the upward pressure on CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices.
For mainstream products with a manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) of US$900, the combined share of CPU, DRAM, and SSD in notebook BOM costs had already risen to approximately 68% in the third quarter of 2026, indicating a notably higher impact of core component costs on product pricing.
Faced with rising costs, brands that raise prices will face the risk of declining demand; those that absorb costs themselves will inevitably see gross margins under pressure; and those that control BOM by reducing memory and other specifications may weaken product competitiveness.
TrendForce expects that in 2027, brands will find it difficult to simultaneously maintain pricing, specifications, and profit margins, and the degree of cost pass-through will become an important variable affecting demand.
Emerging production regions carry higher costs, brands readjust manufacturing footprint
Against this backdrop, brands may re-examine production layouts previously adjusted due to geopolitical risks.
If the impact of tariffs does not further expand, brands' considerations in evaluating production locations will gradually shift from reducing policy risk toward manufacturing costs, supply chain completeness, and production efficiency.
Especially amid soaring component costs, the additional logistics, component scheduling, and supply chain management costs of emerging production regions will draw greater attention.
TrendForce estimates that overseas-manufactured notebooks as a share of global production will decline from about 24% in 2025 to approximately 21% in 2026, and could fall below 20% in 2027, indicating that brand supply chain strategies will be rebalanced between risk diversification and manufacturing efficiency as policy and cost conditions change.
On the other hand, notebook component supply conditions may further diverge in 2027.
As AI server applications continue to occupy advanced process capacity, DRAM supply remains tight, and PC DRAM even faces the risk of constrained supply growth; the tight NAND Flash supply situation may gradually improve in the second half of 2027 as new capacity comes online.
Beyond memory, components such as PCB, MLCC, and PMIC are also affected by capacity allocation, raw materials, and geopolitical factors, experiencing price increases or extended lead times, adding to brands' cost and supply chain management difficulties.
TrendForce stated that the focus of the notebook market in 2027 will shift from whether supply is sufficient to whether end consumers can bear higher prices.
If brands can adjust product mixes and specifications and absorb some costs to reduce the impact on end prices, the market decline could be kept in the low single digits.
Conversely, if component costs continue to rise and are fully passed on to consumers, demand could be affected again, causing the annual shipment decline to widen to a high single-digit range.
How brands rebalance pricing, specifications, supply stability, and profitability will be key to whether the notebook market can stabilize in 2027.
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