Last Friday, the market experienced a surge followed by a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording a slight gain of 0.1% on increased volume, marking its eighth consecutive positive session. The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 235.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Market hotspots rotated rapidly, and over 3,400 individual stocks declined across the board. Sector-wise, the commercial aerospace concept surged again, the lithium battery industry chain strengthened, and the Hainan Free Trade Port concept saw repeated activity. On the downside, papermaking, baijiu (white spirits), and computing hardware sectors led the declines. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.14%.
In today's broker morning briefings, Eastmoney Securities believes the "price increase" concept is poised for further fermentation; China Securities Co., Ltd. stated that the year-end rally has already commenced; while Guosheng Securities opines that the market is likely to confirm its direction before the upcoming holiday.
Eastmoney Securities suggests that the "price increase" concept has significant potential for further development. The recent "eight consecutive gains" of the Shanghai Composite Index, coupled with active themes, exhibit characteristics of a typical spring rally. Conversely, the high intensity of recent sector rotation indicates a lack of clear consensus among funds regarding a leading growth主线. For the current market trend to be sustained, a clear mid-cap focus is essential; however, the most notable marginal changes may not be on the demand side but rather in profit margins. Despite limited recent demand-side changes, a price increase trend driven by liquidity and supply-side factors is quietly spreading across various industries. With rising prices for multiple resource products and the implementation of policies aimed at curbing excessive internal competition ("anti-involution") in midstream and downstream sectors, the "price increase" theme is expected to gain further momentum.
China Securities Co., Ltd. asserts that the year-end rally is already underway, propelled by three key expectations. Firstly, amid uniformly optimistic institutional investor sentiment, next year's spring rally is anticipated to start early. Secondly, with overseas AI model adjustments concluding and a strategic shift in US focus, overseas liquidity and risk conditions are continuously improving. Thirdly, the recent密集 release of industrial policies and events related to the 15th Five-Year Plan has heightened investor policy expectations. For sector allocation during this year-end rally, significant attention should be paid to non-ferrous metals and AI computing power, which possess certain景气 catalysts. Market hotspots are expected to remain centered on commercial aerospace, with secondary themes including the Hainan Free Trade Port, controllable nuclear fusion, and humanoid robots.
Guosheng Securities believes the market is poised to confirm its direction before the holiday. Last week, the broader market trended upwards with震荡, with the Shanghai Composite Index posting a weekly gain of 1.88%. Against this backdrop, the SME 100 Index, along with the electronics, machinery, and non-bank financial sectors, entered daily uptrends. The primary reasons the current market adjustment is not yet complete are as follows: 1) Among major indices, only the Shanghai Composite Index and the STAR 50 Index have confirmed daily downtrends; historically, other major indices have a high probability of following suit. 2) Indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, ChiNext, and Shenzhen Component Index have begun to fail making new highs, showing emerging M-top patterns, suggesting a high probability of future declines. 3) Although 14 sectors are currently in daily downtrends, approximately half remain in daily uptrends, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, petroleum & petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, light industrial, and power equipment &新能源 being notably overbought. However, given that the SME 100 Index, non-bank financials, electronics, and communications have recently re-entered daily uptrends, and the Shanghai Composite Index is on the verge of confirming a daily uptrend, the market direction is expected to be confirmed before the holiday. For medium-term investors, contrarian布局 opportunities may still exist.
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