Apple's foldable iPhone may follow a launch pattern reminiscent of the iPhone X in 2017.
On July 5th, renowned Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo posted on social media platform X, sharing his latest industry findings. His survey indicates that assembly shipments for the foldable iPhone in the second half of 2026 are projected to be approximately 7 to 8 million units. Of this, third-quarter shipments are estimated at only 500,000 to 1 million units, representing roughly 10% of the total for the latter half of the year. In contrast, shipments for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max in the third quarter are forecast at around 22 million units, significantly higher than the foldable model and already meeting the inventory level required for a formal launch.
Based on this, Kuo concludes it is highly probable the foldable iPhone will be unveiled alongside other new models but its pre-order and official sales dates will be delayed until the fourth quarter, with supply expected to remain tight until the end of the year.
Kuo also anticipates that despite a high price tag estimated between $2,300 and $2,500, demand for the foldable iPhone will remain robust at least until the end of 2026. He expects it could sell out quickly once pre-orders open, with delivery times rapidly extending to four to six weeks or even longer, and reseller premiums potentially reaching 50% to 100% above the official retail price. He further notes that the optimal window for assessing the product's true market demand will be from late 2026 into the first quarter of 2027.
Historical Parallel: The iPhone X Precedent
Kuo draws a strong parallel between the foldable iPhone's situation and that of the iPhone X in 2017.
Back then, Apple simultaneously unveiled the iPhone X and the iPhone 8/8 Plus on September 12, 2017. However, due to high manufacturing complexity, third-quarter assembly shipments for the iPhone X were estimated at under 1 million units, failing to reach the inventory level needed for a September launch. Consequently, its pre-orders were delayed until October 27, with official sales commencing on November 3, both dates later than the iPhone 8/8 Plus, which started pre-orders on September 15 and launched on September 22.
Kuo points out the core logic is highly similar for both products: each features an innovative user experience as its primary selling point while simultaneously facing early-stage production bottlenecks due to complex manufacturing processes.
The iPhone X's technological breakthrough was its first-time introduction of an OLED full-screen design, the notch, and the Face ID/TrueDepth camera system. The foldable iPhone similarly represents a major leap for Apple in form factor design.
Production data forms the core basis for Kuo's assessment. With third-quarter shipments for the foldable iPhone estimated at 500,000 to 1 million units, comprising only about 10% of the second-half total, this ratio suggests that by September—when Apple typically holds its new product launch events—inventory accumulation for the foldable model would be far insufficient to support a simultaneous sales launch.
In comparison, third-quarter shipments for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are projected at around 22 million units, already amply meeting inventory requirements for a formal launch, and the sales timeline for these two models is expected to proceed unaffected. The production bottleneck for the foldable iPhone will likely place it in the unique position of being "announced but not available for sale" at the same event.
True Demand Test: Late 2026 to Early 2027
Despite supply constraints, Kuo holds an optimistic view regarding market demand for the foldable iPhone. He states that based on communications with carriers, sales channels, and reseller groups, his judgment is that demand will remain strong at least until the end of 2026, even with a price point around $2,300 to $2,500.
Kuo expects the product to sell out rapidly after pre-orders open, with delivery times quickly stretching to four to six weeks or longer, and this situation persisting until December.
Scarce initial supply, a highly distinctive exterior design, and an innovative user experience are expected to collectively support short-term resale premiums, making reseller prices 50% to 100% above the official retail price "not an impossibility."
While noting the similarities, Kuo also highlights a key difference between the foldable iPhone and the iPhone X. The supply tightness for the iPhone X had significantly eased by late November 2017, with its final second-half shipments reaching approximately 30 million units.
In contrast, second-half shipments for the foldable iPhone are forecast at only about 7 to 8 million units, far lower than the iPhone X. Kuo believes this gap is constrained by both a higher price threshold and greater manufacturing difficulty. This suggests the supply-constrained period for the foldable iPhone could be longer, with a slower pace of resolution.
Kuo emphasizes that the current market buzz surrounding the foldable iPhone is still difficult to use as a reliable indicator for long-term demand. He believes the best timeframe for evaluating the product's true demand will be from late 2026 into the first quarter of 2027.
By then, the effects of the year-end shopping season and the initial hype from the product launch will have gradually subsided, and early production issues and supply bottlenecks should have seen significant improvement. As these short-term factors recede, the sustainability of demand for the foldable iPhone will become much clearer.
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