Entering 2026, the upward trajectory of gold has shown no signs of abating, with prices continuing their relentless climb. On January 26th, the price of gold historically broke through the $5,100 integer mark for the first time, though it subsequently experienced a pullback. As of the time of writing on January 27th, the gold price has risen again by nearly 1.6%, currently quoted at $5,085 per ounce, hovering very close to the record high set the previous day. Analysis suggests that the recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by trading logic centered around de-dollarization, the Federal Reserve's independence, central bank gold purchases, US tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and the traditional real interest rate pricing framework related to inflation, employment, and expectations for Fed rate cuts.
It is noteworthy that, amidst the persistent rise and frequent new highs in gold prices, several gold companies are actively engaged in mergers, acquisitions, and production expansion. According to announcements, after market close on January 26th, Zijin Mining Group (HK2899) unveiled a major acquisition plan. Its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International (HK2259), intends to acquire all shares of Canada's Allied Gold for C$44 per share in cash, with a total consideration of approximately C$5.5 billion (equivalent to roughly RMB 28 billion). Allied Gold's core assets include the producing Sadiola gold mine in Mali, the Côte d'Ivoire gold complex (comprising the Bonikro and Agbaou mines), and the Kurmuk gold mine in Ethiopia, which is scheduled for commissioning in the second half of 2026. Publicly disclosed information indicates that, as of the end of 2024, Allied Gold held gold resources of 533 tonnes, with an average grade of 1.48 grams per tonne. The company produced 10.7 tonnes of gold in 2023 and 11.1 tonnes in 2024, with projected production of 11.7-12.4 tonnes for 2025. Leveraging the expansion of the Sadiola project and the commissioning of the Kurmuk project, production is expected to increase to 25 tonnes by 2029.
After market close on January 25th, Hunan Gold (002155.SZ) released a related-party transaction plan, proposing to issue shares to acquire 100% equity in each of Gold Tianyue and Zhongnan Smelting, and to raise funds from no more than 35 specific investors. The counterparties to the transaction are its controlling shareholder, Hunan Gold Group, and Tianyue Investment Group. The company's shares resumed trading on January 26th. Gold Tianyue primarily focuses on the consolidation of mining rights, exploration, and the mining and sales of gold ore in the Pingjiang Wangu mining area, with its core product being gold concentrate. Zhongnan Smelting specializes in the smelting and processing of refractory gold concentrates with high arsenic and sulfur content, covering the entire business chain from raw material procurement to technical services. In December 2025, China Molybdenum announced its intention to acquire three major gold mining assets in Brazil from Canada's Equinox Gold for up to $1.015 billion. Around the same time, Jiangxi Copper also issued a formal offer to acquire the UK-listed company SolGold for approximately £867 million in cash, with its primary target being the Cascabel copper-gold project in Ecuador.
It is important to note that the production expansion occurring alongside record-high gold prices has attracted widespread investor attention. From an institutional perspective, the long-term outlook for gold prices still appears to hold promising aspects. CCB Futures stated in a report today that, from a long-term cycle perspective, geopolitical risks are impacting the global political, economic, trade, and monetary systems. The safe-haven demand stemming from geopolitical risks and the demand for reserve diversification driven by the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system continue to push the central fluctuation level of gold prices higher. Trump 2.0, prioritizing US interests, is promoting the weaponization of tariffs and restructuring geopolitical strategic space according to a law-of-the-jungle approach, accelerating the reorganization of the global political, economic, trade, and monetary systems. This further solidifies the foundation for a long-term bull market in gold, with prices currently continuing to operate within the major bull cycle that began in December 2025. From a medium-term cycle perspective, Trump's simultaneous promotion of multiple radical reform measures domestically and internationally is suppressing US and global economic growth momentum. Weak economic growth necessitates more economic stimulus measures (accommodative monetary policy and/or proactive fiscal policy) to counteract it. Global central bank easing and liquidity premiums are causing gold prices to trend stronger in the medium term, with prices currently continuing within the medium-term bull cycle that started in March 2024.
Dai Kang, an analyst at GF Securities, recently stated that, looking medium to long term, the supra-national sovereign credit value of gold under the new paradigm will constitute the medium to long-term investment logic. Concerns over the US debt problem may continue to erode the credibility of the US dollar, and the broader trend of de-dollarization persists. Coupled with support from geopolitical risks associated with deglobalization and central bank gold purchasing demand (the potential for further increases in global gold reserves will support prices), these factors are favorable for gold in the medium to long term. Goldman Sachs Group recently raised its year-end gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, citing strengthening demand from both private investors and central banks. Analysts including Daan Struyven wrote in a report that they have raised their target for December 2026 from the previous $4,900 per ounce, expecting central banks to purchase 60 tonnes of gold monthly this year, while gold ETF holdings are expected to expand as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Recently, Morgan Stanley also released a report stating that while gold prices have surpassed its previous forecast of $4,750 per ounce, it believes the peak has not yet been reached. Geopolitical risks, shifts in central bank strategies, and ETF buying collectively support gold prices. Morgan Stanley indicated that, in a bullish scenario, its target price for gold in the second half of the year is $5,700 per ounce.
Benefiting from the sustained surge in gold prices, several gold-related companies such as Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold (HK1787), and China Molybdenum have achieved significant leaps in both their stock prices and financial performance in recent years. By virtue of their strong comprehensive strength, these leading gold companies performed exceptionally well at the 2025 Hong Kong Wealth Management Summit and the 12th "Hong Kong Stocks Top 100" Awards Ceremony, securing multiple honors. Among them, Zijin Mining Group notably won both the "Annual Most Valuable Investment Award" and the "Comprehensive Strength Top 100" award, highlighting its market recognition and industry standing. Looking ahead, if the upward trend in gold prices continues, the profitability and asset values of related companies are expected to improve further, warranting ongoing attention from investors.
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