美国通胀出现见顶迹象，但美股的考验还没结束

华尔街见闻2022-09-13

作者：朱雪莹即将在本周二公布的美国8月CPI数据备受市场关注，目前已有若干迹象表明，高热通胀显露出见顶迹象。一方面，包括汽油、机票、酒店住宿、房租、二手车、服装等多个领域的通胀出现下降或缓和。另一方面，消费者对美国未来几年通货膨胀的预期急剧下降。按照市场预期，一旦美国通胀见顶，美联储的激进前进步伐或将有所放缓。而现在的问题是，美国股市会因此受到提振吗？目前仍尚未可知，因为要考虑到企业盈利状况也或将...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Starboy166
2022-09-13
Starboy166
👍

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154988839?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a33c23f8e5a366189f532d19af270ed","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-09-13 11:24","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","id":"1154988839","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美国通胀出现见顶迹象，但美股的考验还没结束","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>作者：朱雪莹即将在本周二公布的美国8月CPI数据备受市场关注，目前已有若干迹象表明，高热通胀显露出见顶迹象。一方面，包括汽油、机票、酒店住宿、房租、二手车、服装等多个领域的通胀出现下降或缓和。另一方面，消费者对美国未来几年通货膨胀的预期急剧下降。按照市场预期，一旦美国通胀见顶，美联储的激进前进步伐或将有所放缓。而现在的问题是，美国股市会因此受到提振吗？目前仍尚未可知，因为要考虑到企业盈利状况也或将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670139\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"live_wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国通胀出现见顶迹象，但美股的考验还没结束</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国通胀出现见顶迹象，但美股的考验还没结束\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-13 11:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670139><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：朱雪莹即将在本周二公布的美国8月CPI数据备受市场关注，目前已有若干迹象表明，高热通胀显露出见顶迹象。一方面，包括汽油、机票、酒店住宿、房租、二手车、服装等多个领域的通胀出现下降或缓和。另一方面，消费者对美国未来几年通货膨胀的预期急剧下降。按照市场预期，一旦美国通胀见顶，美联储的激进前进步伐或将有所放缓。而现在的问题是，美国股市会因此受到提振吗？目前仍尚未可知，因为要考虑到企业盈利状况也或将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670139\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670139","article_id":"1154988839","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a33c23f8e5a366189f532d19af270ed"],"rights":{"source":"live_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670139","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154988839","pubTimestamp":1663039470,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"live_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"美股市场只看到通胀见顶对加息的影响，却低估了风险。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"US inflation shows signs of peaking, but the test of US stocks is not over yet","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5aae99a2df63c1d075b8d6e561c80a08","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者：朱雪莹即将在本周二公布的美国8月CPI数据备受市场关注，目前已有若干迹象表明，高热通胀显露出见顶迹象。一方面，包括汽油、机票、酒店住宿、房租、二手车、服装等多个领域的通胀出现下降或缓和。另一方面，消费者对美国未来几年通货膨胀的预期急剧下降。按照市场预期，一旦美国通胀见顶，美联储的激进前进步伐或将有所放缓。而现在的问题是，美国股市会因此受到提振吗？目前仍尚未可知，因为要考虑到企业盈利状况也或将受到负面影响。媒体称，金融数据提供商FactSet的高级收益分析师John Butters表示，自6月30日以来，分析师已将美国第三季度收益增长预期下调5.5个百分点，刷新2020年二季度以来的最大降幅。并且公司对经济前景的预期也愈发悲观。在上季度的财报电话会中，在标普500指数中共有240家公司提及了经济衰退，据FactSet统计这是2010年以来最多的一次。根据FactSet上周五的数据显示，标普500指数成分股公司预计三季度盈利将增长3.7%，创下2020年三季度以来最慢的增长速度。正如华尔街大空头、摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在8月初表示，美股市场只看到通胀见顶对加息的影响，却低估了其中风险，通胀下降会对企业盈利产生负经营杠杆效应。之后Wilson又在9月初提及，由于美股上市公司的营业利润率趋势不及预期，并且这种负面趋势或将继续下去，预计美股将在年内跌至新低。虽然部分投资者认为，近期美股市场之所以能够企稳，部分原因是市场预计上市公司能在今年剩下时间中实现适度的盈利增长，并且就业和消费者支出等数据也释放出经济强劲的信号。但是仍有不少反对声音警告称，数据或将在未来数月出现恶化，最近美股的涨幅颇为脆弱。他们担心，随着美联储不断收紧货币政策，原本能够通过涨价来抵御成本上涨的公司最终也难以承压。投资机构Brandywine Global的投资组合经理Anujeet Sareen表示：如果企业收入正在下降，但劳动力、材料和其他方面的成本仍具有挑战性，那么收益确实将遭受不利影响。和上述看法有所不同的是，瑞士信贷对接下来的美股走势表达了乐观预期。该机构首席美国股票策略师Jonathan Golub预计，通胀将在未来12-18个月内“崩溃”，美联储将在未来4-6个月内被迫停止加息，之后美股会“起飞”：市场认为到明年一季度，如果事态继续沿着恢复正常的下行路径前进，美联储要么会暂停紧缩，要么会发出暂停紧缩的信号......如果他们确实这样做，那么股市就会走在前面，真的要起飞了。Golub还补充道：目前美股市场上的估值介于合理和廉价之间，这意味着市盈率还有更多上涨空间。Golub预计标普500指数将在今年年底达到4300点，即较周一收盘价上涨约5%。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9935133763,"gmtCreate":1663041502352,"gmtModify":1676537190086,"author":{"id":"4092705309644240","authorId":"4092705309644240","name":"Starboy166","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433fac4f577973f5794f465faf8f3958","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092705309644240","authorIdStr":"4092705309644240"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9935133763","repostId":1154988839,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1154988839"}